Bringing checkers home

Am I missing something? This seems pretty obvious - we want to minimize rolls that opponent can hit with. Obviously we want to move our blot on the 18 point to remove the direct shot. We don’t want to play 15/11 with the 4, so we either move 18/16 or 18/14. With 18/16 we will have to move that same checker to the 12. With 18/14 we can combine with 3/1 or 15/13.

With 18/12 we are hit when opponent throws a 7 or 10, so 61,52,43,64, or 55 - 9 rolls
With 18/14 15/13, we get hit by 9s or 8s- 63,54,62,53,44 33 or 22 - 11 rolls
With 18/14 3/1 we are hit by 9s or 10s - 63,54,33,64, or 55 - 8 rolls, so that seems like the best move.

Edit - we also could consider 18/14 4/2 as well. I think that is likely close to 18/14 3/1 but keeping the 4 point is probably helpful in variations where we have a chance to hit red’s blot and keeping the second checker there probably gives a more efficient bearoff if red rolls a big double and makes the race close, so I’ll stick with 18/14 3/1