How good are flopped non-nut flush draws? In other words, how often do non-nut flush draws end up as winners, and how often is Hero, with a non-nut flush draw, up against at least one opponent with a better flush draw? In this article, we’ll consider second nut, third nut, fourth nut, and lowest baby flush draws when the flop has two cards of the flush suit and Hero also has two cards of the flush suit.
Second nut flush draw (king flush)
Suppose Hero, sitting on the button, holds
A
, K
, 3, 6
.
This is a starting hand some would consider marginal for full game play. With this hand you want to see a flop with the A plus one or two more hearts, or you want to see a flop with a deuce plus one or more low ranks. Of course, if you flop a full house, that’s fine too. Any hand containing four different ranks has about a 5% chance (5.04%) chance of ending up making quads or a full house. Of course, quads or a full house is not likely unless Hero makes trips or two pairs on the flop.
But although this starting hand is not ideal, It does have three low cards (ace, three, six) and with an ace and a king, also enough high card strength. At any rate, Hero decides to see the flop, and the flop is:
8, 7, 3.
Hero’s low draw has been counterfeited, the A did not appear on the flop and Hero neither has trips nor two pairs.
But after this flop, Hero does have
- the second nut heart draw, plus
- the pair of treys (which gives him a back door draw for quads or a full house), plus
- a backdoor straight draw (a non-heart four and five), plus
- a poor (seventh nut?) made low. (Improves to fourth nut low if a deuce or four appears on the turn or river).
After this 873 flop, if five or fewer players were dealt cards, Hero’s ace-six for low has a better than average chance of winning low. Heads-up, Hero’s ace-six for low is about a two to one favorite over random cards to win low.
And if the game is short handed to the flop, Hero might win high with a king or ace on the river (making two pairs).
These things considered, Hero doesn’t want to fold this hand after this flop.
There simply are not enough flops better than this one to justify playing this starting hand if you’re not going to continue after the flop unless the flop is better than this one.
Six Handed Second Nut Flush Draw
In a six-handed non-folding simulation against random hands, after this flop Hero wins with a flush about 24.382% and with all other hands combined about 7.601%. Thus Hero’s main chance of winning seems to be with the heart flush. Alas, Hero loses with the heart flush about 11.251% as simulated.
Hero’s five opponents combined win with ace high flushes 8.454% of the time. (When an opponent makes the ace high flush, Hero also makes a king high flush and Hero must lose each of these times). Thus 8.454% of Hero’s losses with the king high heart flush are to an opponent with a winning ace high heart flush.
Hero ends up with a heart flush as his best high hand 35.633%. (It’s not 36.364%, as would be calculated, because some small fraction of the time, less than 1% as simulated, when Hero makes a heart flush he also makes a full house and the simulator only keeps track of the best high hand made on each simulated deal).
We can simulate so that the board doesn’t pair and one of the last two cards is a heart. If we make the final board:
8, 7, 3, Q, 9,
and simulate, we will see about how often Hero, with the second nut flush draw, was up against a nut heart draw after this flop when the board ends up flushing but not pairing. And that’s what we want to know from this particular simulation, how often Hero is up against the nut flush when he makes his second nut flush on a non-paired board.
Running that six handed simulation 100,000 times, Hero has the second nut flush 100,000 times and Hero’s king high flush loses to the nut flush 19,973 times. So we conclude that in a six handed game, when Hero makes a flush on the river, unless the A appears on the turn or river, Hero will be up against the nut flush about 20% of the time in a six handed game.
Ten Handed Second Nut Flush Draw
As simulated (non-folding), with Hero’s starting hand after this flop, Hero goes on to win with a:
- flush 17.93%
- full house or quads 1.68%
- straight 0.06%
- trips 0.68%
- two pairs 1.01%
As you can see, at a full table Hero’s chances of winning high are mostly dependent on the heart flush draw after this flop.
Two Handed Second Nut Flush Draw
But two handed, as simulated, things change. Two handed, Hero’s starting hand after this flop, Hero goes on to win with a:
- flush 32.96%
- full house or quads 2.63%
- straight 0.07%
- trips 4.85%
- two pairs 17.24%
- one pair 2.14%
Hero still wins more with the flush than any other type hand, but two pairs shoots up in prominence.
When the unpaired final board has three cards in the flush suit, not including the ace, Hero, with the king high flush, as simulated (non-folding), loses to the ace-high flush:
ten handed |
36.285% |
higher flush one time in three |
nine handed |
32.017% |
higher flush one time in three |
eight handed |
28.204% |
higher flush one time in four |
seven handed |
24.030% |
higher flush one time in four |
six handed |
19.973% |
higher flush one time in five |
five handed |
16.218% |
higher flush one time in six |
four handed |
12.045% |
higher flush one time in eight |
three handed |
8.047% |
higher flush one time in 12 |
two handed |
4.083% |
higher flush one time in 24 |
You have to temper this table with common sense. If there is no way in the world your opponent would bet the river without the nut flush, then when he bets the river, he likely has the nut flush.
Even if Villain is only 75% certain to have the nut flush on the river when he bets the river, if he bets the river you should expect to lose three times out of four with the second nut flush. Usually in a fixed-limit game there will be enough in the pot to give you favorable odds to call. But in a pot-limit or no-limit game if Villain bets the pot and Hero calls, when Villain has the nut flush 3 times out of four, then Hero wins 2P once and loses 1P three times. Obviously Hero does better by folding to a river bet in a pot-limit or no-limit game.
Third nut flush draw (queen flush)
When the unpaired final board has three cards in the flush suit, not including the ace or king, Hero, with the queen high flush, as simulated (non-folding), loses to a higher flush:
ten handed |
57.639% |
higher flush ~58% |
nine handed |
52.297% |
higher flush ~52% |
eight handed |
46.631% |
higher flush ~47% |
seven handed |
40.417% |
higher flush ~2 times in 5 |
six handed |
34.058% |
higher flush ~one time in 3 |
five handed |
28.205% |
higher flush ~2 times in 7 |
four handed |
21.191% |
higher flush ~one time in 5 |
three handed |
14.452% |
higher flush ~one time in 7 |
two handed |
7.258% |
higher flush ~one time in 14 |
Playing a queen high flush draw at a six handed table is roughly equivalent to playing a king high flush draw at a full (nine or ten handed) table. That is, in general, if Hero makes his flush draw on an unpaired board he should expect to lose to a higher flush roughly one time in three.
A problem with queen high flush draws is it’s generally difficult to tell when you’re up against a king high flush draw. The reason is the king high flush draw has reason to fear an ace high flush draw and may be playing cautiously. Unless you know your opponent very well (and even then), it’s generally difficult to tell when your opponent has a king high flush draw as opposed to some other flush draw, higher or lower.
On the other hand, against an opponent who’s playing scared, if you play your flopped queen flush draw aggressively, perhaps you can induce your opponent to fold a better draw.
General default advice is not to draw for queen-high flushes at a full table.
Fourth nut flush draw (jack flush)
When the unpaired final board has three cards in the flush suit, not including the ace, king, or queen, then Hero, with the jack high flush, as simulated (non-folding), loses to a higher flush:
ten handed |
70.662% |
higher flush about 71% |
nine handed |
64.997% |
higher flush about 65% |
eight handed |
58.717% |
higher flush about 59% |
seven handed |
51.846% |
higher flush about 52% |
six handed |
44.249% |
higher flush about 44% |
five handed |
36.969% |
higher flush about 3/8 |
four handed |
28.371% |
higher flush about 2/7 |
three handed |
19.412% |
higher flush about 1/5 |
two handed |
10.046% |
higher flush about 10% |
If you make a jack high flush at a full table (or against fewer opponents), especially if you make it via the backdoor, you should tend to play it (depending on your assessment of your active opponents and the action). However, you probably don’t want to generally draw for a jack flush at a full table, at least when some of your opponents will draw for queen and king flushes.
Please remember the tables shown herein are just for higher flushes when you make your flush on the river and when the board is not paired. Starting out with two cards to your flush on the flop, there’s only about a 36% chance of making the flush and then if you make it the board may be paired and you might lose to a full house or better.
A problem with jack high flush draws is it’s generally difficult to tell when you’re up against a king high or queen high flush draw. The reason is the king high or queen high flush draws have reason to fear an ace high flush draw and may be playing cautiously. Unless you know your opponent very well (and even then), it’s generally difficult to tell whether your opponent has an ace high, king high, queen high, or lower flush draw.
General default advice is not to draw for jack-high flushes unless the table is short handed.
Baby flush draws
When the unpaired final board has three cards in the flush suit, then Hero, with the lowest possible baby flush,
A, 2, 3, 6 when the final board is
Q, 8, 3, 5, 6
as simulated (non-folding), loses to a higher flush:
ten handed |
87.813% |
higher flush about 88% |
nine handed |
82.705% |
higher flush about 83% |
eight handed |
76.761% |
higher flush about 77% |
seven handed |
69.41% |
higher flush about 69% |
six handed |
61.153% |
higher flush about 61% |
five handed |
51.859% |
higher flush about 52% |
four handed |
40.916% |
higher flush about 41% |
Three handed |
28.617% |
higher flush about 29% |
two handed |
15.151% |
higher flush about 15% |
Can you scare off an opponent who has a higher flush draw after a flop with two cards in the flush suit? It depends on the tenaciousness of your opponent with the particular number of players at the table… and on how good his flush draw is.
A problem with baby flush draws is it’s generally difficult to tell when you’re up against a higher, but possibly non-nut flush draw. General default advice is not to draw for baby flushes unless you’re heads-up or three handed.
Playing to Scoop
In a high/low split game, you should endeavor to promote your hand into a scooper when possible. Good timing is essential in pulling this off. In this particular case, after this
Q, 8, 3, flop, Hero, with A, 2, 3, 6, also flops the nut low draw and then makes both the nut low plus the baby flush with the 5 on the turn.
At this point Hero, with the nuts for low plus the baby flush for high, has a small chance to scoop. Hero can enhance this chance to scoop if he can chase out an opponent with a higher flush.
By betting or raising with the nut low, Hero risks getting his last bet fractionated but Hero enhances his chances of scooping. The bets already in the pot are not affected by Hero’s last bet.
When Hero gets quartered, he still wins a quarter of everyone else’s last bet. With three players on the river, getting quartered amounts to losing one quarter of that last bet (with more than three players on the river, Hero doesn’t lose anything). If Hero scoops because he chases out a player with a higher non-nut flush, he wins the whole pot. It’s generally worth the risk of getting quartered to enhance your chance to scoop by betting the nut low.
But when should Hero pull the trigger?
It’s not entirely clear when Hero should make his move because when to do so is opponent dependent.
Perhaps Hero’s best chance of scooping is to wait for the river to make a move. If the board pairs on the river, Hero can bet or raise with his nut low plus baby flush, hoping to push out any higher flushes who now have to fear Hero has a full-house.
