There is a large amount of handicapping information available in the marketplace and a lot of it is quite useful. For instance, I often find myself using multiple speed figure sources to determine what really happened in a race. It is nice to balance the human approach of the Beyer figures with the more data driven BRIS counterparts. A tool like DRF’s Formulator allows you to look at a race the next day and see the immediate feedback of a speed figure, confirming or disproving my thoughts on how fast the race should have been run. Class ratings and Power numbers also add to the mix, streamlining the amount of time it takes to focus on contenders in a race.
There are situations, however, where what is on the page or screen is not enough; the intangibles overwhelm the analysis. In these circumstances, I often find that looking at what happened in the past over large numbers of races has helped guide me towards finding an approach to take to the task at hand. With this in mind I thought a look at some everyday situations might be useful.
Should we be afraid of 1st time starters that go off at Odds On?
Perception often colors a person’s view of certain classes of races. Nowhere is this truer than when players confront a heavily favored 1st time starter. The reasons for the heavy betting action are numerous. It could be a name trainer in a high class meet like Todd Pletcher at Saratoga. It could be the fact that the horse cost two million dollars at a Keeneland sale. It could be backstretch rumors that the horse is a runner. No matter what the reason, this is a case where the reality almost never meets the hype. If you look at the table below you will find a comparison of horses making their initial foray compared to all other kinds of odds on favorites. The database I used is one I have tracking odds-on favorites from late 2002 to 2011 for a large number of thoroughbred tracks.
Odds On Favorites Nov-2002-Sep-2011
| Category | Total | Wins | WPCT | PPCT | SPCT | $2 WNET | $2 PNET | $2 SNET |
| 1st Time Starter | 2234 | 1005 | 44.99% | 64.55% | 75.25% | 1.58 | 1.74 | 1.74 |
| All Others | 111098 | 55617 | 50.06% | 71.56% | 82.58% | 1.71 | 1.84 | 1.87 |
As can be readily determined, heavily bet 1st time starters are a decidedly worse bet than other odds on favorites. So when you are starting a Pick Three and see an odds on firster, you are probably better off assuming you do not have a free bingo square.
What about those trainers who are so confident in their charges that they spot them in races against winners and they are still favored at low odds? While confidence may win you a nice paying sales job or a promotion, it won’t help you beat the odds. These animals also underperform the typical odds on favorite.
What if they prove themselves?
On July 24th at Saratoga this year, the favorite in the featured Grade 2 Sanford was Mike Repole’s Overdriven, a horse that had lived up to .70 to 1 odds in his debut, winning by 3 ½ lengths despite some early trouble in the race. Overdriven earned stellar speed figures in his debut and as a result was favored again in the Sanford, this time to the tune of .30 to 1. On this occasion Overdriven ran like a 3 to 10 shot, winning easily by four.
This begs a question. Does the subset of animals that live up to their billing deserve to be respected when heavily favored the next time out? It turns out that the key is how fast they ran when in their debut. Like Overdriven, animals that ran a speed figure at or above today’s par figure fare better than their slower counterparts. (Par Figures for today’s race are available in DRF, BRIS, and other past performance products.)
Below is a table that compares odd on favorites that finished in the money in their debut at low odds.
Odds On Favorites, Second Start, In Money at 2-1 or less in debut 2002-2011
| Category | Total | Wins | WPCT | PPCT | SPCT | $2 WNET | $2 PNET | $2 SNET |
| At or above par | 169 | 108 | 63.91% | 75.15% | 86.39% | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.90 |
| Below par | 192 | 93 | 48.44% | 67.19% | 79.69% | 1.58 | 1.67 | 1.75 |
Source for Speed Figure Pars: BRIS (www.brisnet.com)
It seems that without any other handicapping factor, horses that ran above par are a near breakeven bet and should be respected while those that failed to meet par are candidates to bet against. Requiring a speed figure advantage pushes the above par animals into the black, but doesn’t help their slower cohorts much.
Extreme Class Drops
Often when playing a claiming race we are confronted with an extreme class drop on a horse that figures to be bet down to heavy favoritism. You look at the numbers and the horse figures to win. Questions linger, though. If the horse was competitive at a much higher class, why enter him here. It helps to look at the trainer, and a tool like Formulator will let you quickly filter for similar situations. On the whole however, are these good or bad bets? The question often influences whether you want to single a horse a spread in that race if you are betting a multi-race exotic.
To look at the question, I examined horses that were dropping 50% in purse value from their last start in both claiming and maiden claiming races. Below you will find a table looking at claiming races from 2006 to 2011, comparing 50% purse drops to all other odds on claiming favorites for the tracks I have followed. As you can see, there is not a lot of difference there. So in this case you have more than meets the eye. The move itself is not negative in aggregate and if you have detailed information on the trainer, you can tailor your play to suit those findings.
Claiming Races Comparison, Odds On Favorites 2006-2011
| Category | Total | Wins | WPCT | PPCT | SPCT | $2 WNET | $2 PNET | $2 SNET |
| > 50% Purse Drop | 3203 | 1609 | 50.23% | 70.96% | 81.27% | 1.70 | 1.84 | 1.87 |
| All Others | 27419 | 13347 | 48.68% | 70.33% | 81.33% | 1.68 | 1.81 | 1.84 |
The similar maiden claiming move is less ominous. Since a great number of horses never win a race, finding a level where a horse is competitive is often a difficult task. One sees extreme class drops more often, and it is often said that the drop from straight maiden company to maiden claiming is one of the steeper drops is racing. In the table below, we see that large class drops are slightly better bets than other maiden claiming odds on favorites.
Maiden Claiming Races Comparison, Odds On Favorites 2006-2011
| Category | Total | Wins | WPCT | PPCT | SPCT | $2 WNET | $2 PNET | $2 SNET |
| > 50% Purse Drop | 2108 | 1137 | 53.94% | 74.57% | 85.10% | 1.79 | 1.89 | 1.93 |
| All Others | 12446 | 6274 | 50.41% | 72.35% | 83.51% | 1.71 | 1.82 | 1.87 |
Incidentally, in looking at even larger class drops the performance and return figures were much the same for both claiming and maiden claiming races.
Is Failure Forgivable?
Two years ago I wrote an article for this publication in which I ran a series of computer simulations to see what blend of a horse’s last three speed figures produced the best results when evaluating performance. It turned out that the last figure was by far the most important variable. I am reminded of this whenever I see the past performance of a horse that failed in their last race but seems to tower over the field today. The question is whether you should forgive the poor performance, as there will always be an excuse. It could be traffic trouble, a poor post, a prep race, dislike for the track; the list could really go on forever.
My take is that if a horse is an extreme favorite you should be less likely to forgive. To test this I analyzed odds on favorites in a variety of situations where horses failed in their last start compared to horse that did not. As was the case when examining speed figures, last race performance accounts for a lot. Horses that failed in their last race consistently underperformed horses that did well last out. The table below shows animals that finished off the board at odds of even money or less in their last start compared to all odds on favorites.
Odds On Favorites Nov-2002-Oct-2011, Failed at Odds On Vs. All
| Category | Total | Wins | WPCT | PPCT | SPCT | $2 WNET | $2 PNET | $2 SNET |
| Off Board Odds-On | 1749 | 836 | 47.80% | 68.90% | 79.19% | 1.61 | 1.80 | 1.81 |
| All | 113459 | 56689 | 49.96% | 71.42% | 82.43% | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
Conclusion
In this article, I examined a number of common handicapping situations where past performance data may not be as important as how the situation has played out in aggregate. We did this through the lens of heavy favorites, horses you usually have to decide whether to take a stand against. In the case of first time starters we found that the reality often does not meet the hopes and dreams of the connections involved. In the case of extreme class drops, they are usually less suspicious than you might think. Finally, when dealing with horses that failed last time out, forgiveness may not be the best option.
