Let’s start with an example that we give in our book Seven-Card Stud for Advanced Players. Suppose your first three cards are (5
6
) 5, your hand is completely live, someone has already raised with an ace up, you are absolutely sure that he has a pair of aces, but there is another ace out. Of course you play, and like most players you call the full bet. (Note: We’re assuming that you are in a game where the ante is relatively large in relation to the initial bet. This usually means $15-$30 or higher, or what I sometimes refer to as “real” stud as opposed to “little” stud.)
Now when you call this bet, you’re encouraging a multiway pot. So let’s assume that happens. Two players call behind you, and the four of you get to see fourth street. Are you happy with this?
Most players will say yes. They will argue that by calling and getting the multiway pot, they have maximized their pot odds, and given that they need to draw out to win — remember the initial raiser has a pair of aces — this is exactly what they should do. Unfortunately there is a big flaw in this reasoning.
When playing poker you need to think in terms of maximizing your expectation, and in many situations this is the same as maximizing your pot odds. But sometimes this is not the case.
Let’s go back to our example. Notice that you have a live small pair with a straight flush kicker against a dead pair of aces. If you were to deal the cards out over and over, you should win the pot about 45 percent of the time providing only you and the pair of aces are playing. Given the ante and bring-in, that 45 percent is certainly enough for your play to be profitable.
Now let’s look a little closer. Many of your wins will be because you make two pair and your opponent does not improve. Furthermore, notice that in this spot, fives up will beat a pair of aces just as often as kings-up will.
But how do you like your two pair when two other players are in there? Here you will frequently beat the pair of aces only to lose to one of your other opponents. It’s true that the kings-up will win more frequently than the fives-up, but it can also become a very expensive calling hand.
So here’s what has happened. By letting the other players in, your probability of winning has gone down faster than the size of the pot has gone up. That is, just calling has cost you money even though you are absolutely sure you are against a better hand. So to preserve your probability of winning, the correct play is to reraise.
This is a very important idea that comes up in virtually all forms of poker. It is sometimes correct to raise (or reraise) with a hand that does not at first appear to warrant it to preserve your chances of winning.
Let’s look at another example, this time from limit hold ’em. Suppose you are in the small blind, only one weak player has limped in from middle position, you hold K
T and the big blind is moderately tight. That is, if you raise, he will fold a large percentage of the time. Well, do you call and maximize your pot odds, or is raising the better play?
The first thing to do is to think about what hands the limper is likely to have. Because he limped, as opposed to raising, it is doubtful that he has a medium or large pair, or two big cards. In fact, there are many hands that he could hold where if neither you nor he improves once the board cards come, your king can win you the pot. But of course that’s only if the two of you are competing.
Put another way, there is a problem when you call. You give the big blind a free shot at drawing out. Of course, if your initial opponent makes a better hand, you don’t really care very much what the big blind does, However, this frequently won’t be the case, and now what happens to the hand that the big blind holds is very important.
So again, a raise on your part will preserve your probability of winning and maximize your expectation even though your initial cost is higher. On the other hand, a call here will essentially allow the probability of your winning to go down faster than the size of the pot is going up. Sound familiar.
By the way, the above was true only because the pot was short handed. Once several people have come in, you have almost no chance of winning with king high. Now raising with king-ten offsuit will only cost money in the long run. However, there are a few other hands, such as J
T which are worth a raise in this spot. However, you raise with them for a different set of reasons that just might be worth a future column.
In my writings about this game we all play, and always try to do better at, I often stress that poker is not easy, and sometimes very counter-intuitive. The above is certainly an example. For most people the obvious play is to call and take the easy way out. None of us wants to put in extra money with a questionable hand. (Well, a few maniacs might disagree, but I think you know what I mean.) However, sometimes it’s what you must do even though it just won’t feel right.
Most of us know that the best poker players are also aggressive poker players. But you need to know when it is appropriate to show aggression. Being aware of the idea not to let the probability of your winning go down faster than the size of the pot is going up will steer you towards some of these aggressive spots. In addition, many of your opponents won’t understand your play and will think that you are just being reckless. Of course we know better.
