About Philip Newall...................................................................................................................... 7
Acknowledgments......................................................................................................................... 8
Introduction................................................................................................................................... 1
Part One: Strategy........................................................................................................................ 4
Introduction......................................................................................................................... 5
Two Schools of Poker......................................................................................................... 6
Exploitive Poker and the Beauty Contest Game..................................................... 7
The Nash Equilibrium............................................................................................ 10
Simplifications....................................................................................................... 13
The Two Schools are More Alike than You Think............................................... 15
Information Hiding............................................................................................................ 20
Rules for Preflop Limit Hold ’em...................................................................................... 30
Exploitive Adjustments......................................................................................... 37
Blind-Versus-Blind (BvB) Play............................................................................. 39
Capping................................................................................................................. 42
Heads-up............................................................................................................... 46
Conclusion............................................................................................................. 51
Appendix to Rules for Preflop Limit Hold ’em: Polaris’s Non-Standard Preflop Plays.. 53
Calling on the Button............................................................................................. 54
Capping................................................................................................................. 63
Analyzing the Opening Round in Other Popular Forms of Poker.................................... 74
Omaha Eight-or-Better Hi/Lo................................................................................ 74
2-TO-7 Triple Draw Lowball................................................................................ 76
The Stud Games: Seven Card Stud, Stud Eight-or-Better Hi/Lo, and Razz.......... 79
The Big Bet Games: No-Limit Hold ’em and Pot-Limit Omaha........................... 82
End Play............................................................................................................................ 87
Balancing Your Checking Range............................................................................ 93
Asymmetric Ranges in Practice............................................................................. 96
Returning to Real Poker: Card Removal and Split Pots...................................... 101
Scare Cards.......................................................................................................... 106
Incorporating Exploitive Poker............................................................................ 108
Checking Back the Flop................................................................................................... 111
Play on a Three-Flush Flop................................................................................. 113
Your Range of Checking Hands........................................................................... 116
Analyzing a Sample of Flop Checks................................................................... 119
Polaris’s Flop Checks.......................................................................................... 132
Pairs......................................................................................................... 133
Showdownable High Cards...................................................................... 135
Weak Draws............................................................................................ 136
Multiway............................................................................................................. 140
Middle Game Concepts................................................................................................... 142
Bluffing................................................................................................................ 142
Planning Ahead.................................................................................................... 143
Check-Call............................................................................................... 144
Check-Raise............................................................................................. 147
Check-Fold.............................................................................................. 150
Checking to the Raiser......................................................................................... 155
Checking Back the Turn...................................................................................... 166
Information Hiding, Again................................................................................... 166
Information in Multiway Pots............................................................................ 173
Exploiting Imbalances.......................................................................................... 178
Waiting Until the River to Raise.......................................................................... 179
The Anatomy of a Hand.................................................................................................. 184
Appendix to the First Eight Chapters: Man Versus Machine........................................ 211
No-Limit Hold ’em: Applications and Extensions.......................................................... 223
Hand Examples.................................................................................................... 231
Part Two: Other Topics............................................................................................................ 251
Introduction..................................................................................................................... 252
Bankroll Management and Shot Selection....................................................................... 253
The Kelly Criterion............................................................................................. 254
Applying the Kelly Criterion to Poker............................................................... 256
Conclusion........................................................................................................... 261
Risk Preferences.............................................................................................................. 263
Risk Preferences in The Brain............................................................................. 272
Prospect Theory.................................................................................................. 275
Comparing Expected Utility and Prospect Theory............................................. 278
Conclusion........................................................................................................... 280
Psychological Biases........................................................................................................ 282
Overconfidence.................................................................................................... 282
Framing................................................................................................................ 285
The Importance of Emotion................................................................................ 289
Cognitive Dissonance.......................................................................................... 291
Projection Bias..................................................................................................... 292
Conclusion........................................................................................................... 295
Personality....................................................................................................................... 298
Conscientiousness............................................................................................... 299
Neuroticism......................................................................................................... 300
Extraversion......................................................................................................... 301
Openness............................................................................................................. 304
Agreeableness...................................................................................................... 305
Conclusion........................................................................................................... 306
Valuing Your Poker Business.......................................................................................... 307
Investing.......................................................................................................................... 318
Consumption Smoothing..................................................................................... 319
Behavioral Errors................................................................................................. 321
Beating the Market.............................................................................................. 323
Labor Income Risk............................................................................................... 325
Conclusion........................................................................................................... 329
Predicting Future Poker Returns..................................................................................... 331
Barriers to Entry.................................................................................................. 332
Predator-Prey Dynamics..................................................................................... 336
Conclusion........................................................................................................... 339
Applied Game Theory.................................................................................................... 342
The Sitting Out Dilemma..................................................................................... 342
The No Trade Theorem....................................................................................... 346
Personal Development..................................................................................................... 351
Further Reading............................................................................................................... 359
Poker.................................................................................................................... 359
Game Theory....................................................................................................... 361
Investing and Finance.......................................................................................... 362
Conclusion................................................................................................................................. 365
Appendix: Game Theory.......................................................................................................... 366
Game 1: Saddle Point....................................................................................................... 366
Game 2: Mixed Strategies................................................................................................ 368
Game 3: Poker................................................................................................................. 370
Index........................................................................................................................................... 376
