Big pairs (99-KK, as previously defined in Eric Rodawig’s article) can be tricky starting hands to play in stud hi-low. Position, up-cards, and the other players at the table may dictate playing these hands as much as the cards themselves. Additionally, how the cards come on 4th and 5th street will strongly influence your play. In this article, we will look at several scenarios involving such hands and examine their equities for reasonable ranges of opponents’ holdings.
The focus of this article will be on heads up situations and the corresponding pot equities for a typical situation, but the difficulty in playing big pairs multi-way will also be illustrated with pertinent examples of common situations in a future article. Equity calculations will be made throughout this article using the simulator at ProPokerTools’ website 1.
In Ray Zee’s excellent book, High-Low-Split Poker, he states important considerations such as throwing away two queens on 3rd street if a king comes into the hand with a raise or completion and the devaluation of a high pair hand when playing against an ace. Factors he mentions include the liveness of your hand, the appearance of a two straight and/or a two flush, and the potential of a made low freerolling for a chance at the high hand.
The golden rule of high-low-split poker is to scoop the pot. Split pots result in minimal profit and introduce more variance to your bottom line. High pair hands are potentially high-variance hands to play since they are generally one-way hands. You may start with a high pair and a low card and back into a low, but the chance of making a winning low when starting with a hand such as QQA is essentially negligible, as you will only make a winning low heads up about 2-3% of the time2. Of course, starting with any other card besides a low card with your high pair will preclude your making a low at all.
Your big pair will usually be split, making it obvious to your opponent what your hand is. The informational advantage will likely be with the opponent showing a baby or ace up. Playing one-way hands with such an informational disadvantage results in difficult situations without a good read on your opponent and an understanding of the equity you have in the hand, particularly on 4th and 5th streets during which your equity can greatly fluctuate depending on the nature of your opponent’s holding. Understanding the high variance you may encounter in these situations should encourage you to tread carefully with these hands.
Let’s look at a typical scenario involving a big pair:
7 Card Stud *High-Low* ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1
Seat 2: $73.50
Seat 4: $15.50
Hero (Seat 6): $114.50
Seat 8: $213.50
*3rd Street* - (0.67 SB)
Seat 2: xx xx T
___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 6
___*brings-in*___calls
Hero: J J
A
___completes
Seat 8: xx xx 8___folds
In this case, we have some deceptive value in having our pair buried. If we hit trips, our opponent will likely believe we have bricked, and we can gain great value with that informational advantage. An opponent may have a wide range at this point with something as relatively strong to our range as 3 to a straight flush or aces in the hole (played deceptively) and as weak relative to our range as a baby pair with a low draw.
*4th Street* - (2.67 SB)
Seat 4: xx xx 6 5___raises
Hero: J J A 2___*bets*___calls
A reasonable opponent’s raise on 4th street versus our strong board represents a strong range including straight draws (possibly with a 3 flush), trips, two pair, and possibly aces in the hole. The straight draw combos are likely lower straights with good low draws. Other possibilities include a low draw to a 6 with an ace, and a pair with a 3 straight. How do you think our hand does versus his range? Here are sample pot equities for each scenario:
Hand Type |
Example |
High Hand Equity |
Open ended straight draw with 3 flush: |
3 |
36%3 |
Inside straight draw with 3 flush |
2 |
39.4%4 |
Open ended straight draw with no flush draw |
3 |
38%5 |
Inside straight draw with no flush draw |
2 |
42.6%6 |
Trips |
5 |
14%7 |
Two Pair |
5 |
44.6%8 |
Aces |
A |
29.6%9 |
Low draw to a 6 with an ace |
A |
48%10 |
Pair with a 3 straight |
3 |
52.6%11 |
How do you feel about playing that high pair now? Clearly the high pair hand has lost
much of its value on 4th street versus a reasonable range for our opponent. A lot of the
heads up value of the high pair comes when our opponent catches a brick on 4th street. Let’s
revisit 4th street for the case in which our opponent bricks to see that the pot equities
then are much more in our favor:
|
Hand Type |
Example |
High Hand Equity |
3 to a small straight flush with a brick |
3 |
58.9%12 |
3 to a straight with a brick |
4 |
63.1%13 |
Baby pair with small card with a brick: |
6 |
61.7%14 |
Aces with a baby and a brick |
A |
34.7%15 |
Three to a 6 with an ace and a brick |
A |
65.6%16 |
The equity that the high pair hand has in the pot varies widely depending on 4th street. As a result, when you catch a brick on 4th with a high pair and don’t improve on 5th street, you should consider folding when your opponent catches well on 5th, because your equity in the pot will be worse and you may be paying off 3 big bets just to split the pot. Exceptions to this, however, may include non-straight or razz boards such as 832. It is a horrible situation to be calling down for half with one pair when your opponent has the low hand locked up and is freerolling you for the possibility of a scoop.
*5th Street* - (3.33 BB)
Seat 4: xx xx 6 5 6___*bets $6 (all-in)*
Hero: J J A 2 J___calls
In this scenario, we have improved our hand as well as possible, while our opponent has improved, but is now likely behind with his range. Looking at how this street affects his possible hands, we see that our equity from 4th street has greatly improved.
Hand Type |
Example |
High Hand Equity |
Open ended straight draw with 3 flush and baby pair |
3 |
58.9%17 |
Inside straight draw with 3 flush and baby pair |
2 |
60.6%18 |
Open ended straight draw with no flush draw and baby pair |
3 |
60.1%19 |
Inside straight draw with no flush draw and baby pair |
2 |
61.9%20 |
Full house |
5 |
36.1%21 |
Aces up |
A |
80%22 |
Low draw to a 6 with an ace and baby pair |
A |
67.6%23 |
Two pair with a 3 straight and low draw |
3 |
79.3%24 |
Trips with a 3 straight and low draw |
3 |
66.6%25 |
In the event that we had hit 2 pair instead of trips on 5th street, our equity is still
favorable against much of our opponent’s range with the exception of his trips or better
hands. Despite this, we have reverse implied odds given that we will not likely win
3 big bets on the remaining streets if our opponent fails to make a low or two pair, whereas
he may still make a straight, flush, or even just aces up and be assured of winning 3 big
bets with his improved high hand and do no worse than chop with his made low. However,
again if we brick on 5th, it is time to consider a fold. For the listed range of hands,
when we brick 5th (e.g. 9 instead of J comes), our equity plummets to 34-38.5%
in the first 4 cases, 6.9-12.1% in the event our opponent has trips or better and 42.9% in
the best case scenario in which he only has a baby pair with an ace and a low draw. If
our opponent hits a non-pairing baby card on 5th when we brick, he may have a made low with
a straight or flush draw and be freerolling us. In any case, bricking 5th street puts
our hand in a vulnerable, uncertain situation in which we not only have marginal pot equity
in the hand, but also are at an informational disadvantage versus our opponent.
As shown in these simulations, playing high pairs in stud-hi-low is difficult to do profitably with an unimproved hand on 5th street. Even improved hands on 5th street may be marginal holdings because of a potential informational disadvantage, reverse implied odds, and opportunities to be freerolled by an opponent who has already made a low or has a better, well-disguised high hand. Extend these situations to involve multiple opponents who are drawing against you and playing these holdings in a hand with lots of action may prove perilous to your bankroll.
