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Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players, 21st Century Edition

by David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth

Odds and Implied Odds

Here are two extreme examples of this concept. First, suppose you hold

and the flop is

If a solid player to your right bets, a number of players are behind you, and there has been no raise before the flop, you should fold. Notice that in this example, not only might you be against a better ace, but a spade or a straight card can beat you. (Against a "loose bettor" who would play any ace, and bet any ace or queen, you should raise rather than fold. You should also continue to play against a player who will only bet a draw, and check his better hands hoping to get in a check-raise.) But against most bettors you should simply fold.

A second example is to fold in the same situation if you hold

and the flop is

(Again notice that you can be against a better jack, or that a spade or straight card can beat you.)

Other exceptions to folding these hands are when the pot has become very large and/or the game is very loose. Also, remember that calling is sometimes the worst play. That is, folding or raising in these situations is usually a superior strategy. If the pot is large and you are going to play, it is generally correct to raise with these types of hands. You should seldom call as you cannot afford to give someone behind you who holds a marginal hand the correct odds to draw out.

In addition, if you call on the flop and intend to also call on fourth street, keep in mind that the pot odds you are getting are not as good as they appear. The additional call that you plan to make lowers the effective odds that you are receiving from the pot. (For a more detailed discussion of these concepts, see The Theory of Poker by David Sklansky.)

Sometimes, however, the opposite will be the case. That is, your implied odds actually are better than the odds that the pot are offering you. This occurs when you plan to continue playing only if you hit your hand. Otherwise, you will fold. What this means is that the pot does not have to offer you seemingly correct odds to play a particular hand. That is because it is offering you implied odds.

An example is to call before the flop with a small pair, getting as low as 5-1 oodds as long as there is little fear of a raise behind you. (The odds against flopping a set are approximately 7.5-to-1. Against players who give a lot of action, you can make this call even if you are getting a bit less than 5-to-1.) A second example is to try for an inside straight on the flop when you have odds of only about 8-to-1. (The odds against making your gutshot are approximately 11-to-1.)

Say, if you hold

and the flop is

you can call even if you are getting a little less than the required 11-to-1. However, if a two flush is on the board, or for some other reason you are not sure that your hand will be good if you hit it, you probably would want odds of at least 11-to-1 to call.

Finally, even if the odds don't seem to justify it, you still should make a loose call every now and then, as you don't want to become known as a "folder." If you are regarded as a folder, other players will try to run over you, and otherwise predictable opponents may turn tricky and become difficult to play against. (Once again, for a more thorough analysis of pot odds and implied odds see The Theory of Poker by David Sklansky.)