![[Two Plus Two Publishing]](/images/2+2.gif)
Here follows the profit/loss per day for the month of February 1999 using the numbers for the Baden-Baden Casino in Hamburg for Table 1 posted at... http://www.spielbank-hamburg.de/permanenzen/archiv.php3 for my method using a 3,000 unit bank.
If anyone interested in the method would like to send me some actual casino spins...anything from 100 to 500...for a single 0 or 00 wheel...I will let you know what profit/loss the method would have made using your spins.
Give me a few days to get back to you with the results please.
February1999 01: +908 02: +1318 03: -2318 04: +1092 05: +1072 06: +1428 07: +764 08: +1668 09: +1064 10: +1172 11: +1684 12: +1768 13: +1096 14: -2920 15: +1096 16: +1004 17: +952 18: +856 19: +888 20: +1024 21: +940 22: -2436 23: +1532 24: +952 25: -2604 26: +496 27: +1304 28: +1120
Total profit: +16920
Total number of games: 615 Total number of wins: 611 Strike rate: 99.34%
Rex reno@gtonline.net
rex, try a different site for your hustle trying to con someone into paying you for crap, if thats what this is about. our posters are far too smart and will only make you look like a fool.
"Our posters are far too smart and will only make you look like a fool."
Pay no mind to these know-it-alls, Rex. Could we arrange to hit the casinos together next time? We will split assignments. You hit'em at the Roulettes, where it 'urts the most, while I try my luck at the wussy 21 tables.
Yours, etc
yeah....good post. Keep up the winnings. I hope March and April are as successful as February. You're one of those who thinks that after flipping a coin 7 times with 7 straight heads, that the 8th flip MUST BE TAILS...how could it be heads 8 times in a row, right? Got news for ya...the chance of heads is still 50/50....there goes ANY SYSTEM you've got for roulette....out the door! Put 50 cents on red for me will ya?? Thanks
I found my Tribe at 8-1 to win the AL. After I had seen them posted as 8-1 to win the Series, I couldn't resist. The Yanks go down this year!
My attitude for any BoSox fans I know:
You may find me arrogant, but, after all, I root for the franchise responsible for preventing the Yankees' dynasty from spanning five consecutive years.
No, I don't condsider that arrogant. You go with your gut and let it rip. I would love the Indians this year but the Chisox getting Wells is going to make it hard for the Tribe to win the Central. That should be a dog-fight - and good for baseball. They could definitely be a wildcard if they don't win - but there looks to be 2 decent teams in the West, and you never know if Texas can get on a roll with that lineup. The Rangers' problem will no doubt be lack of chucking.
As for my Yankees - for them to 4-peat, they have to win the East. Lucky for them the AL East is probably the worst division in baseball. Boston should be hurting with Garciaparra missing probably 2 months at least. I don't think Toronto will make up for losing Wells.
I am trying to learn to use the point count. I am trying to increase the speed of my count but I feel I am slowed down by my verbalizing in my head the totals, i.e. "plus one, plus two, plus three, plus two, plus one, zero, minus one, minus two, etc."
A question for the card counters:
Do you sound out the point count or do you visualize the count?
What is the best way to practice to improve speed without sacrificing accuracy?
I guess it's like the difference between reading out loud and speed reading.
Practice, practice, practice Carry a deck with you wherever you go. When you go to the john at work, take your lunch, or sit in front of the TV. Anytime you can, whip it out (the deck) and start counting. As to how to "see" the count. I realized many years back to drop the "plus,minus,m,n or whatever. I store whether it's neg or positive in the back of my head and just count. It truly does come down to continious practice. The same for speed. What count are you using? A common problem with budding counters is to use a complicated Level II or III count which really isn't needed. Check out "Blackbelt in Blackjack" by Snyder. Utilizing Advanced Red 7 with Sklanskys' Key Card Concept has enabled me to take the SD game apart with a 1-2 spread. I definitely recommend you score Casino Verite, if only I had this in the early 80's! READ,STUDY AND THINK about the game. LOL
betelgeuse,betelgeuse,betelgeuse
Found this proposition bet on playersb.com, which I hear is a reputable book. What do you guys think?
In the Maryland/duke game - first team to score :
Duke -145 Maryland +115
Duke is only -200 in the game itself .... and the first basket has a lot more randomness to it than the game as a whole...in my opinion, the line should be something like this :
Duke -120 Maryand -105
seems like a decent wager to me.
Maryland wins the tip, missed the 1st shot. Duke missed their 1st shot and maryland makes a 3 pointer for the 1st basket of the game!!
Winner docriver!
Duke -1.5 made free throws. One of Wong's top picks. I like Duke -4.5. I LOVE this pick.
I have seen Duke -4 which I might side with slightly. I just worry about it because Maryland obviously has no fear of this team and has played them very well all year so giving points doesn't really give me a good feeling.
My best bet is to take the 1st half under for the Arizona game. Both teams have shown a tendency to score a lot less points in the 1st half, even more than the line is adjusted. Further the dome effect is working and since its two teams that don't play each other there will be a feeling out period. I think the first half could end in the mid to high 50's and I got under 68.
wb..you pretty well called it...they both seemed tentative and "feeling each other out", the first 5 to 8 min, which made the difference on 1st h total under...impressive...gl
Give me your expertise.:) What's up?
without 1/2 your capping skills, I'm forced to proposition my way to the big $$$$$!
Hehe, so Fez did you absolutely love the game when it was Maryland 42-20? :)
Yeah I thought Duke would wear them down too, just never to the degree that they did. That was a great testament to Coach K and his boys, the fact that they were so methodical and never seemed down or out even when facing such a huge deficit against a team that has played them so well this year.
So thoughts on the next game? I still say Arizona is the better team and had the much easier road yesterday. I think the rally will take something out of Duke as teams that have to make such a furious comeback often are a bit tired and flat next time out. The teams look very similar though, each has its high scoring PG, lots of athletic big guys down low that block shots, big time players off the bench, lots of experience. Really it looks fairly even, the only edge I can see is that if Woods plays well he will cause a lot of trouble for Williams when he comes down the lane. Also I don't think Duke has an answer for Jefferson and his all around skills so they will need a big game from James/Dunleavy to even that out. All in all a good matchup, but I think the Cats are a few points better if both teams come out with expected performances. The total is right about where I think it lands, maybe a few points too high. Both teams can play good defense and that might make it a slight under. However the firepower is very deep out there so I would just lay off the total and play the Cats on the moneyline...
"Hehe, so Fez did you absolutely love the game when it was Maryland 42-20? :) "
Aarg!! Amateurs. That's why games are 40 minutes. Maryland is well known for their choke jobs in the last few years.
Amateur? Why do you say that? I just asked a playful question, if anyone knows that games are 40 minutes or 9 innings long its me...
x
A couple of props have got my attention. All these props were listed at Olympic Sports.
1. Player with most strikeouts over 325.5? Almost seems like a one-man prop here. I don't see anyone in the league going over this number with the exception of the Big Unit. The Unit wore down as the season went on and if you look at his month by month chart you see a big drop off in K in August/September. Considering he is 37 years old that is definitely not a good sign. Further he got in 35 starts and had no big injury problems so you get the chance that he misses a few starts and you are pretty sure to have him come at 300 or less. All in all its a spot where I he only cleared the number by 21.5 last year so even a slight slowdown or a few minor injuries and I think you have a winner on the under.
2. More saves by Armando Benitez or Mariano Rivera? Rivera -145 Benitez +115
I think this line is a plain mistake. They favored the wrong guy. Rivera is the beneficiary of a solid pen behind him and gets fewer chances than Benitez playing in the AL where there are more high scoring games which means slightly fewer save opportunities. Rivera is usually around 35 saves despite all the wins the Yankees get, showing he isn't going to post gaudy numbers. The number is too high because the perception of how good he is in the playoffs colors people's view. Benitez started slow last year and picked it up late in the year. Franco got 4 saves, but I would guess he gets 1 or 2 at most this year as Benitez has no doubt taken this role as his. The only factor might be a few less wins by the Mets this year, but I still think they end up winning more games than the Yanks do and getting odds is just icing on the cake.
I unloaded on under 325 Ks. Hoping the big unit does not eke out 330 with the new strike zone. Looks like a 60% play to me.
Well I stopped betting hockey and basketball for a week just to get ready for baseball. Here are my general picks.
NL East 1. Mets 2. Marlins 3. Braves 4. Expos 5. Phillies
I see a big down year for the Braves. They haven't done much to improve and last year's loss in the playoffs really felt like a swan song for them. Marlins just stole Matt Clement and he will be the key to them surviving their rash of pitching injuries. The Mets though will come through as long as Bobby Jones doesn't revert to his terrible form of a few years ago. I think Kevin Appier will perform well in the NL as he won't be overworked with a better pen than in Oak and the hitting will get him out sooner. At the bottom I think the Expos might surprise and get back on track provided they don't face the injury bug of last year. The Phillies look dead to me, a team in need of a total overhaul.
Central 1. Cards 2. Astros 3. Reds 4. Pirates 5. Brewers 6. Cubs
More a vote against everyone else. I don't see the Cards duplicating last year's success. They just have more talent though and pass through. The Astros will rebound, but still are light on 1-5 pitching. The pen will be better and Wagner will be a key. Could surprise and get there. The Reds are the exact same since they have been unloading to cover Griffey's salary. If either team gets some 4 or 5 starter to emerge then they could take it. Pirates are taking a slow road to rebuilding. They do have some talented players, but really lack depth. They and the Brewers might get better soon with new parks, but the talent isn't there yet. The Cubs, well what can you say about them. A real mess that is about 3 good players away from even being respectable.
West 1. Rockies 2. D-Backs 3. Dodgers 4. Giants 5. Padres
Not that I am terribly impressed with the Rockies, but I think this was the division that got worse. The D-Backs are still too dependent on the Unit and now Schilling to carry them through. If both are healthy, a real risky proposition at their ages, then they could come out on top. The Rockies though have a lot of firepower locked up and Hampton will fit in well. The Dodgers just are a defensive mess. The pitching is ok and the offense will get some runs, but man that defense will cost them a lot of games. The Giants are held together by duct tape I think. Mark Gardner is still in the rotation? They usually do surprise though so don't count them out. The Padres continue the giveaway, I mean why get rid of Matt Clement for a mediocre outfielder in Kotsay? I am still trying to figure out that trade.
AL East 1. Yankees 2. Red Sox 3. Blue Jays 4. Orioles 5. Devil Rays
Hey I called for a Braves fall, why not the Yankees too. Mussina is an improvement, but I feel no way Clemens repeats last year's numbers and El Duque just isn't developing into the dominant pitcher because of his inconsistency. Their 5th starter is going to be scary too, but in the end this is the weakest division in baseball. The Sox added the most productive player in baseball and he shores up a weak spot at the same time. Lets just see Everett be a decent citizen and they should come out on top. The staff is a bit weak, but Pedro sure makes up for a lot of that. They looked very good until Nomar went down and that will doom them. The Blue Jays I can see falling quite a bit. Their starters are falling apart and not improving. Carpenter and Halladay were supposed to be solid and have just gotten worse each year. The O's and Rays just look terrible and it doesn't take a genius to figure out where they are heading.
Central 1. White Sox 2. Indians 3. Tigers 4. Twins 5. Royals
The Sox made the best move adding Wells. They needed an experienced starter to go along with their young staff and didn't give up much for him. The offense looks solid again and they did a major upgrade getting Clayton and moving Valentin out of SS. Lots of noise being made about Cleveland but I don't see them improving on last year. The staff still looks weak once you get past Colon and Finley and they will have a tough time replacing Ramirez. The Tigers could surprise this year. They look to finish above .500 this year and maybe even do better with a better staff aided by a pitcher's ballpark. The Twins may turn the corner and show some signs of life, getting into the 75 win territory this year. They have some solid pitching, but clearly need more talent to be a threat for even .500. The Royals are in the opposite boat, no pitching but decent offense that could keep them around the 77 wins they got last year. The bottom feeders aren't as bad as they were.
West 1. A's 2. Mariners 3. Rangers 4. Angels
The A's got a perfect fit in Damon as he finally gives them a speed guy. He is a big upgrade over Grieve a scary thought considering how good this team was last year. They just need someone to emerge to shore up the pen. The Mariners will not fall as far as some suspect because the staff is too good. A-Rod will be missed, but they got a big upgrade with Suzuki over Buhner/Ibanez and Boone should produce more than McLemore and adding Nelson for Mesa is another huge upgrade. They might surprise and win the division again. The Rangers will take some time to adjust to the expectations. A-Rod is not as big an offensive upgrade over Clayton as he would have been for most other teams that have junk at SS. A lot of offense but very little pitching and horrible defense means 3rd place. The Angels are just disheartening their fans and team by standing by and doing absolutely nothing to improve. Tim Belcher is still a key figure on the staff, that should tell you all you need to know about where they are going.
NL Champ: Mets MVP: Todd Helton Cy Young: Al Leiter
AL Champ: A's MVP: Manny Ramirez Cy Young: Tim Hudson
World Series: A's over Mets in 6. Proving the skeptics wrong, a middle income team will dominate the season from start to finish and return the franchise to glory. Tim Hudson is getting better each season and should have a huge year winning 22-24 games and lowering his ERA to under 3. Should John Jaha get back his old form this team's lineup is scary. The Mets will ride the arm of Al Leiter to a return trip to the Series, a lot of it because the rest of the NL looks pretty feeble. The Mets have a nice offensive balance and good defense, but nothing strikes you as being spectacular and that will show in the Series as the young turks push them aside in fairly easy fashion.
Is it just me or do teams these last few years seem really weak? I could see another year where no team wins 100 games because for as good as Oakland and Chicago could be, they still have some glaring weaknesses and play some fairly tough top to bottom competition in their divisions.
your comments appreciated by all as usual...does your comment about overall weaknesses of teams suggest playing dogs more....do you plan on betting against the braves in shotgun approach?...gl
Well I bet them as they come, so many games to choose from you never take a broad approach to betting bases. I think the dog idea really might not matter because the lines are probably adjusted down anyways, after all if the average line is -122 then what value is there in that? I think the Braves will have their spots where they are good bets and bad bets, I don't think I ever go a whole season not betting on or against all teams at some point. I just think the best approach is to do your research early and get a sense of who is under and over valued and take more shots with this teams accordingly. Early season it is important to be prepared as there are spots where you can see a team and its pitcher are probably overpriced more than you will see a team that is undervalued. Remember that in the early going, the starters are much less valuable as the managers won't let them go anywhere near as long in the game as they will in May and later. So it is very important to spot who are the starters with a solid history of opening up in April strong and then following it up with teams that have decent pens backing them up. That usually gets the money. I personally play about 1/3 the games in April that I do in May, but I do find some pretty good percentage spots adhering to this method.
This guy knows his baseball. IMO this is an incredibly good analysis and preview of the upcoming season. An excellent post.
Thanks Tom...now if only I can explain my 1-3 start today :) I am especially embarassed thinking Mike Hampton would have a bad first game and Darryl Kile would come out to make amends in his personal hellhole, but that sure didn't pan out!
I am a complete newbie to online betting. What sites are recommended? What are the min. balance and bet requirements? Thanks for your help, Scott
I play at intertops.com
It is quite reliable and offers odds on just about everything... min bet $1, max can go very high if you request it personally via letter or phone... They are completely legit..
do what I did and take WildBill's advice and follow the forums at these sites :
theprescription.com majorwager.com
The word is that Intertops does take huge bets, but only if you prove you are a loser real fast. They are notorious for kicking people out who have gone on two week winning streaks. As long as your action stays very small you will be fine, but before long you will probably be looking for more outs anyways.
docriver, I was looking at those forums you mentioned, and I was wondering if you have followed long enough to get a good read on any of the NBA posters... thanks for any feedback
I also recommend Intertops, and I like Canbet too. One advantage to Canbet is a slightly smaller vig. All straight bets are -107 instead of -110.
-Sean
nt
negroes in them, brother. I sure as hell don't.
Good luck.
Can somebody let me know what the best books by reliable sources are, for Gin.
Thanks
Ryan
A few of the books that I have enjoyed reading on gin.........
Oswald Jacoby's HOW TO WIN AT GIN RUMMY
George Monkland's GIN RUMMY (The Book For Money Players)
Sam Fry's GIN RUMMY
Michael Sall's A PREDATOR"S GUIDE TO GIN RUMMY
The Fry book is $2.95
The Sall book is $200.00
Good luck with your card playing.
Howard
I think tonights game will be a great one. Two teams, playing their best ball of the season and two of the best coaches in the college game. I have to go with Arizona and the plus 4 tonight. Their defense is as impressive as any Ive seen all season. They can also score, making them a very complete team indeed. Duke is super tough, as evidenced by them being down 22 to Maryland and then coming back to beat them by 11. I look for a very close, hard fought game all night. I have to give Arizona the nod because of their defense. Also, if the game is as close as I think it will be, getting the 4 points will be big at the end.--Big Al--
Zona more rebounds.
Chunk Bet by me. Best bet I see on the board.
I'm not betting this game, but since I'm 0 for 123 on this forum, I figured I'd offer my thoughts so others could use it as a negative indicator. I like AU's backcourt. The combination of boards & backcourt edge & front-court-near-push & ability to defend suggests a small edge for the Wildcats so obviously the points tip the scale. I have no sense of the points, small impulse for the under -- but it seems like a bad combo AU & the under -- Duke can make the last 3 mins last an hour if they trail (the Dean Smith ACC legacy is clock management). Anyway, I do think the margins are thin here as far as values go...
I was wondering if you would have an edge over the casino in Carribean Stud if you see the cards from the 2 people next to you. Or to even go a little further and have a friend across the table give you a nod or something if he has the dealers upcard in his hand. So you would have 4 hands total, yours and 3 others, to limit whether the dealer will match his upcard or not.
Unfortunately nope. You need to see all seven hands to have an edge, even six does not cut it. Griffin said you could have a computer-perfect 2.7% edge with this info.
Read my post under "Nice Call Fez". I saw most of the main factors in the game and handicapped the damn thing accordingly, yet I still lost the bet I made. Just as I thought Williams would have an off game and Woods would dominate in the middle. Duke would come off flat after their big rally and they looked horrible with open looks early. Jefferson would be an impossible matchup for Duke to handle and he was for the most part. I even said James/Dunleavy had to have big games for Duke to win and lo and behold what happened? I tell you betting sports can drive you nuts. All the more reason why NO ONE ever hits 60% over the long run, because even people much smarter than me get equally frustrated when they can see how a game plays out and still have losing bets.
I think you can make this statement/arguement about any form of gambling. For example, I dont know if you play hold em, but if you do, I am sure there have been times when you are one of the top players at a table. Some tourist or drunk who has little insight into hold em, continually sucks out on you and you end up with a losing session. You leave the game stuck, but knowing that you played it right and he/she just got dumb ass lucky. It is the same frustration. If you are smart and an above average hold em player or sports bettor, you will make money in the long run. I know your frustration, you call a game perfectly or play a hand just right, yet still lose. As I said, just try to keep it in perspective that in the long run it pays off.
Not to kick a man when he is down, but although I agreed with your Zona +4 pick.
1) Zona +2.5 1st half (available at quite a few places) and more importantly
2) Zona more rebounds.
Were both far superior bets. Note No1 was solid when you anticipated a flat Duke coming out.
Great bettors make their own luck. But, yes I had a little Zona +4, but it was the rebound play that the pros were all over, not Zona.
"Great bettors make their own luck. But, yes I had a little Zona +4, but it was the rebound play that the pros were all over, not Zona. "
Actually we were on 2 rebound props. The zona prop and the Battier over 7.5 rebounds. Like robbing a bank, only easier. Now the easiest sport on the board starts. Life is good. See you on GC Fez.
here are the season long baseball bets that i've put on. comments and bashing welcome.
Twins - Under 74 wins (crappy offense, may sell higher priced good players near the end of the year) Cardinals - Under 91.5 wins (pitching staff is very suspect - will score their share, but will give up a lot too...91.5 is a lot of games to win...and if McGwire gets hurt, that kills them). Astros - Over 81.5 wins (they won in the 92-97 games in the three years before last year...which was a big aberration in my mind...they should have had a 500 record if their wins/losses were to form with their runs scored/allowed - which was the same...a comeback year for Wagner & Biggio and for the Astros in general).
Astros @ 20-1 to win NL Pennant (see above - should be more like 12-1). Cleveland @ 7-1 to win AL Pennant (pitching is very underrated - should be 5-1 ... Yankees have big problem with bats). Oakland @ 7-1 to win AL Pennant (great young team...if they stay on the same pace, they should be the favorites in the AL, even over the Yankees...but the Yanks gets all the respect - only problem is that if they have a major injury, they don't have the bankroll to replace the injured player).
McGwire to win HR Derby @ 7-1 Sold McGwire at 16 (settles to 100) at WSEX in the HR Derby. (just a pure arbitrage.....made in such a way that I break even if Mac doesn't win, and I win big if he does).
Field to win HR Derby @ 75-1 (Juan Gonzalez is in the field). Sold Gonzalez at 5 (settles to 100) at WSEX in the HR derby (same as the Mac HR derby bet - win zero if he doesn't win, win 5000+ if he does win ... only problem with these two bets is keeping high cash reserves needed at WSEX for the short sales).
Andruw Jones @ 75-1 to win HR derby (I just think this is his breakout year...a hunch..but still, 75-1 just seems like a great price. good enough to take a $200 flier)....this bet was made at Imperial Palace..don't know if they've lowered it now.
League Leader in Triples Under 21.5 (last time it was over 21.5 was in 1949...this was a gimme...too bad the limit was only $1000).
Wow, I didn't see that triples number anywhere, but that must have been a fool that put that one up. Doesn't he know Vince Coleman is not in the league anymore :)
I saw it but didn't do any homework before it was gone. Oops.
under 19.5 is currently available.
that's still probably a real good positive expectancy bet...but not a lock anymore.
just looked it up - at 19.5 - it has gone over 4 times since 1949!
but it did go 20 last year (Christian Guzman of the Twins)...so maybe he's a huge triples threat or times have changed...who knows - I guess that's why its still gambling to a sense, even if there is pos. expectancy.
Guzman played 156 games last year at a tough d position. The year before he had only 3 3B's in 120 or so games, so his career triples rate suggest a much lower number is right for him.
Did Colorado acquire a big triples threat?
Coors field is great for 3B's
Danny
The Triples Under 21.5 may not be so hot anymore. Guzman, who had 20 last year, already has 4 in 5 games. Ouch.
I noticed that. Guess we should all just remember it seems every year someone busts up another record, as long as it isn't pitching related. Guess this might be the one on watch for this season...
Assuming Bowas stays with him all season. Burrell is a big favorite to own the single season K record. 15 in 7 games so far.
Danny
I constantly hear that baseball is the easiest sport to cap.
Why?
May be baseball is less VIG compare to other sports.
To those who said it is easy, are they still have a job work full time?
I do still keep my full time job, but readily admit that I would make a lot more money on bases if I gave it up. Baseball is easy because its very streaky by nature and getting into rhythm with it can lead to a lot of good value bets. However, indeed the low vig is very important and so is the money line nature of the game. Just think if it mattered in football if the line was -3.5 or -3.6. Well in bases they can shade numbers and if you have enough outs you can often get close to a no vig proposition. On a dime line it just takes 5 cents of value to make a game theoretically no vig. I use 6 books right now, and in two days I have generally found between 4-8 cents of value. Therefore I am playing close to no vig or maybe even positive vig. Of course its not exact because if a line is shaded maybe the true line is more towards the middle, but just the very nature of this guarantees that the player that shops gets a sport with tons of choices on what games to bet (so you can be somewhat picky) and also gets very low to no vig.
I don't mean you.
I find baseball easier than football/basketball because of the money line. In football or basketball, I have to bet on HOW MANY POINTS a team is going to win by. So, let's take basketball for example....my team has to win by 9. They're up by 11 with 50 seconds to play....they put in there bench players or may not even give it a "full effort" in the final seconds....the other team hits a couple shots and suddenly i've lost my bet. In baseball, I can simply bet on WHO IS GOING TO WIN THE GAME (not by how many runs). I only bet underdogs that i think have more than a 50/50 chance of winning. If I hit 45% of my dogs, i'm pulling a profit. I'd never bet -175 on a team. I don't care if the Yankees are at home (with Clemens on the mound) against John Doe High School....there's just no value in it. Go dogs!
The mark of a good bettor isn't someone who just subscribes to this theory. There are many times I bet teams that are dogs that I wouldn't say have a 50/50 chance of winning. There aren't too many games where you can get much value if you subscribe to this theory. The real value lies in teams that don't have this chance to win, but are overpriced beyond their perceived odds.
The simple reality is that there is a time and place for bets on all teams of all prices. Today I went against all published opinion and bet Pedro Martinez at -280. Call me crazy, but I didn't think there was any way a cold team that has been getting pounded since opening day was going to touch Pedro coming off a tough luck game where he didn't win despite a great performance. The result is 8 innings of three hit pitching with 16K. For all that people say about don't lay over -150 or -160, there are times it pays off to ignore the advice, just be sure you have the edges and motivation lined up for you. And yes there are times you go against -250 teams if the conditions are right.
I hear what you are saying WildBill. I know it's all about getting a "deal" based on the chances a team has of winning. The 50/50 theory on underdogs works for me though and I've found games at -250 tough to beat over the long haul...maybe i just don't pick 'em at your rate, but even with Pedro on the mound....you made $100 for $250, but you gotta win 3 out of 4 of those to stay ahead....pretty tough to do (although I'm sure Pedro's winning pct. is better than .750...or close to it). Anyways, I like the idea of spending $100 and feeling that I have a 50/50 chance of getting $205 or even $250 back.....which is often the case
I don't think I have ever seen a +200 team that had a 50/50 chance to win. Prices can be off, but not that much. Please if you bet a big dog, don't believe you have a 50 percent chance of winning unless you look at the game and say, "well team A could win or team B could win" :) Otherwise, there are no gifts in gambling like that unless you got some info that no one else does...
Phoenix Suns-Charlotte hornets OVER 181.5
Portland Trailblazers + 1
Will Go 2-0 Or Won't Post Again
tiger to NOT win, -200. OBVIOUS
I dont know about that...
Hasn't Tiger won approx 1/3 of his professional starts over the last year+?
Isn't Augusta suited to his game?
He is obviously playing well, now too.
Good Luck.
Danny
I would be pretty wary betting against Tiger, but those are the best odds you'll get on the Masters anywhere
Of course the books aren't going broke they aren't but you should have heard the crowd at the Bellagio today. I swear every idiot in there "claimed" he bet Tiger to win the tournament, that it was the easiest money around. If all these suckers really bet him for more than 10 bucks the books would be crying for mercy. I just think the banter in a sports book is classic. People say sit in a cafe and people watch, I say just sit in a sports book on a weekend and listen. You will never find a room with more self-titled geniuses anywhere in the world! Thank god for them, I never forget they are the ones that keep the truly talented amongst ourselves doing well...
Truthfully, I must say that for the first time in my life I bet on Tiger to win a tournament (in a pool format).. Each person had 10.5 million to buy any player they wanted, total prize money decides winner.. I took Woods, banking on his win, and Faxon, decidedly the best player near the bottom of the money list last season.. Everything worked exactly as it was planned to and I came out 46 to 1..
However, I'll be the first to admit that at 2:1, I never would have picked him to win it all..
What are the odds for the Open? 3-2?
Danny
Just an interesting tidbit.. So yesterday morning, I wake up early and see the opening line on the 76ers at -5 against the Pistons.. Knowing that I will not be around for the rest of the day, I take the bet on the assumption that both teams played the night before with Iverson and his crew barely breaking a sweat in TO and Stackhouse going red hot for 57.. Stackhouse is still young, and his great games seem to almost never come in a row..
I get home just before gametime to see the spread now at +1!!! Turns out Iverson, McKie, and Hill are all sitting it out, plus Eric Snow has a bum ankle...
Final Result, 76ers by 6.. Somebody up there likes me
Roxy once said NBA is a volatile game, you should see more player sit out late in season.
If you bet serious money better get satellite tv watch pregame show get late info,team that miss key player can be a good bet because oddsmaker or bettor overreact.
Woods -190
Mickelson & LoveIII +160
Mickelson and Love are the two players who can say they've played better than Woods this year and their games also play well at Augusta. And you get both of them? And you get the +160? I like it.
JG
Sacramento Kings-Utah Jazz OVER 195
Seattle Supersonics-Houston Rockets OVER 199
Will Go 2-0 Or Post Again
Congrats.. 0-2.. In the NBA, there is no such thing as a lock on betting over 190..
Being a newbie to this site, I just checked out some of your previous posts and before realizing that you pretty much do this as a joke.
I sincerely hope you aren't placing money on your bets.. But thanks for the humourous interlude..
You're smart man but I did lose $10 today.
10 whole dollars??? Wow! I certainly hope you can afford to est this week... idiot...
This is the worst pos'n for PG this is his last test before the Derby. If these jockeys can keep him pinned in on the rail and tire him with false breaks you may get a huge price on a Trifecta. (7-3-8) box
Good Luck
5th Santa Anita - Santa Anita Derby 1 1/8 Miles Dirt Open 3 Year Olds Purse: $750,000 Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med. 1 Point Given Stevens G L 122 L 2 I Love Silver Pincay L Jr 122 L 3 Crafty C. T. Delahoussaye E 122 L 4 Startac Solis A 122 L 5 Scorpion Espinoza V 122 6 Early Flyer Baze T C 122 L 7 Palmeiro Desormeaux K J 122 L 8 Cherokee Kim Flores D R 122 L
Try betting KC over for every game this weekend. Should win at least 2 out of 3. Royals ran into hot pitching Yankees this week - too good a hitting club, especially at home, to not breakout in the next couple of games. Good luck
Too many black players know what i mean??? Surprised at you .....
After study NBA game today I think I have winners email me
dollars_man@hotmail.com
EZ $$$
3-0
Life Is Good
Why did I see this one coming???
aren't that hard to spot are they hehe...gk
Can anyone recommend a good first book for horse racing handicapping? Is Andy Beyer's book any good?
1. BETTING THOROUGHBREDS by Steven Davidowitz (Plume) 2nd revised edition 1997.
2. All of Beyer's books are worth having,IMHO.
Good Luck
Howard
UM
Agreeing with Howard, Davidowitz's _Betting Thoroughbred_ will be most helpful. If you follow his advice you will be a collector of charts. The past performances are extracted from the charts, and the charts contain substantially more information.
I recommend _Modern Pace Handicapping_ by Tom Brohammer. I don't recommend that you jump into complex pace figure handicapping. The real value is in the pace analysis by running style. And you should contruct a track profile for the running style of winners at the track(s) in which you are interested. Be aware that it is often useful to distinquish between sprints that are seven furlongs and those that aren't: the running style of typical winners is often distinctly different. Also, if you are considering exacta or triple wagering, you will want to construct a profile of place horses.
I also recommend, though not as a textbook, _The Compleat Handicapper_ by Richard Carter, writing under the name Tom Ainslie. A professional writer, this was was Carter's first book on racing. Published in 1966, it is long out of print, but findable. It is the account of a two week vacation the author spent at Monmouth Park. It imparts some of the excitement of racing and the unexpected interest in this book sparked the publication the following year of _Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing_. It was Anislie/Carter who began the revolution of incisive writing upon the subject of racing.
Beyer's books are good, but the advantage they gave to the industrious speed handicapper has plummeted since the now-defunct _Racing Times_ began publishing his speed figures in 1991. Now every reader of the DRF has them. This is one reason pace handicapping has increased in value: the speed figure standouts draw public money, even when they are pace disdvantaged.
So good luck to you. Thoroughbreds are a time consuming pursuit, so keep your prioities in order.
Answer me this: in what state do you live and what tracks do you patronize? If you say Forida, I'll see you at the track.
Jake
I live pretty much right across the street from Laurel Park in Maryland. Thanks for your advice.
I'm not looking to do it full-time or anything right now, but I at least wanted a starting point for when I go over there (which is a few times a week).
I bought Davidowitz's book today. It seems helpful.
Avoid horse racing.
I bet on virtually every sport but this one. Ridiculous bid/ask spreads. And you cannot even lock in your odds when you bet. Unless you have inside info., this is the worst sport
How about the books by William Ziemba describing the Dr. Z method? (this is looking for conditions where there is not enough money be on the show and sometimes place bets on the low-odds horses)
The doctor Z method has a problem, that when heavily favoured horses do not win, they tend not to come a place/show as often as theory suggests. So the method grossly overstates your advantage.
A must have in my opinion. "Money Secrets of The Racetrack" Barry Meadow.
I'm glad you mentioned Barry Meadow. A man I have the highest respect for. In his Racing Monthly he pulls no punches in exposing the frauds of the industry. His honesty is absolutely brutal.
Some other Barry Meadow books......
1.Blackjack Autumn
2.Players guide to Nevada Racebooks
3.Secrets of the Pick 6 (Barry HAS hit the pick 6 a few times).
He also has an audio tape ($14.95) with Andy Beyer called THE TRIFECTA.
There are a lot of people in the gaming industry with questionable ethics, so it's refreshing to know that there are the Mason Malmuths and Barry Meadows of the world out there!
Good Luck
Howard
Howard, I had to chuckle at your post since
1. I have read Barry's BJ Autumn and spoken to him on the phone. A great writer, with "hands-on" experience of what he writes. I love the guy.
If other authors were serious about their competencies at overall gambling, they would "hit the road" around Nevada like Barry did, and learn something. For example when was the last time other authors even bothered going to Reno, Carson City, Tahoe, Ely, Wendover, Jackpot or Winnemucca? There are lessons to be learned on the road; and Barry doesn't just learn them, he shares.
n/t
Not that it affects too many people's handicapping, but after looking at the box scores this week I am convinced that the worst stats in baseball involve holds, blown saves, and saves. Just look at these three examples and figure out what the hell they did to come up with these stats (the links listed are for the actual boxscores):
Sat Apr 7 (Tor @ NYY) http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/scores/20010407/tornyy.html Toronto has three pitchers that get credited with a hold, one of which got one out (Borbon). Then the closer Koch comes in and gets the save despite giving up two hits and losing the shutout and almost blowing the game. A game that you should avoid looking at the "descriptive" stats and just focus on the numbers.
Wed Apr 4 (Tor @ TB) http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/scores/20010404/tortam.html Tampa's Sturtze comes in the 6th inning and gets a blown save? Please no one in the 6th should get a BS although his bad effort at least doesn't go unnoticed. This whole concept of a blown save is really wasted if you get one for losing a lead in the 6th inning, especially with the way offense is today.
Tue Apr 3 (NYM @ Atl) http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/scores/20010403/nymatl.html This is a real doozy. Franco doesn't get an out, gets two runs and two hits charged to him (note his ERA isn't 0, its infinity) and yet he gets a hold!!! Then Wendell does a much more credible job of one inning with one hit (no runs) yet since Franco sucked he pays the price with a blown save! How ridiculous is that?
I wouldn't mention it except that many bullpen measures I have seen over the last two years have referred to these stats. They seemed to do it because closers never pitch more than an inning except on rare occasions and the middle relief guys are in there a lot of innings. Good idea to look at middle relief, bad idea to look at these worthless stats that some idiot came up with. I am all for the quality start designation that came into vogue in the last 5 years, but these blown saves and held games really have to go. Especially that last example with Franco and Wendell. How a guy that pitches like Franco did there get anything positive out of it is just beyond me, they must have some more quality control on those designations, and by all means please don't give them to three players in one game.
as another (ex)-useless,misleading,stat...gl
Didn't Charlton get a hold for giving up a grand slam?????????????
Danny
You never know...I am still wondering how long stats like that will last. I sure hope they don't pay any attention to them in salary arbitration.
As for GWRBI, I have to agree they are often insignificant, but at least you have to do something, often at a clutch time, to get that stat. Further only one guy a night can get it, you can't give out three or four like holds. GWRBI would be a much better stat if it was only given out if it occurs in the 7th inning or later and if the RBI put the team up by 3 runs or less. I think MLB would do much better to have stats like all that we mentioned handed over to the official scorer to make judgement calls on. If a reliever really did work out of a jam or under pressure then yes give him some credit. If a player got the clutch hit that won the game, well show him some props too. But don't give it to players just because they technically fit in under the description of possibly being qualified for the stat.
"GWRBI would be a much better stat if it was only given out if it occurs in the 7th inning or later and if the RBI put the team up by 3 runs or less. "''
It always did, unless it was a tie game and the hitter got a salami....
Remember the GWRBI had to put you in the lead. An RBI that makes it 10-0 in a game that ends 10-9 is not the GWRBI. The 1-0 RBI is.
Danny
...with these damn announcers and how they treat the Lakers. No matter what happens to them you hear "well this team will play its best ball in the playoffs and is the best team when the do" Who are they kidding? I watch this team and laugh at the thought. The team barely won the title last year and for some reason people treat them like the greatest team in a decade. All that hype and nothing to back it up. They are the 3rd or 4th best team in the league, even with a full squad. Yet still the announcers and all the public types just love them, as evidenced by their still being future book favorites. If they lose some games its always because they have injuries or they just need to straighten it out and they will be fine. When will people wake up and realize they are getting fooled and that the nagging injuries and the internal messes are part of the game that won't disappear once the playoffs begin. Oh well I can't complain, they are handing everyone a gift by still leaving the Spurs up around 7/2 to win the title as they have clearly proven they are the best team and they look real good in their chances to reclaim their crown. After all if Shaq or Kobe were out last year does anyone think the Lakers would have won the title?
or just sell them at 22 in the 4 pay Futures Markets at WSEX.
Might be an idea. I considered getting a WSEX account awhile ago but felt the whole futures market would just be a bad diversion as I got cute trying to beat those markets.
'member at the beginning of the season you disliked the Lakers but were sure that the Blazers were the cat's meow, while some of us thought that they might have chemistry problems? :) Spurs seem obvious in hindsight, but it wasn't so clear in October.
JG
Of course not, but hey if I only picked the winners what fun would that be? haha
I thought highly of the Spurs preseason and made them my second choice, but I just thought the Blazers were above everyone. Just goes to show what a coke-head and picking up an idiot (Strickland) can do to your chemistry. They might make some noise in the playoffs, but awful tough to win from the bottom of the bracket with home court what it is in the NBA.
seems like a overall good prospect:
1. big city popular team;oughta add a few points alone;
2 defending champs(lost fire);
3.possible internal dissension(may be overdone by press)', jackson pretty astute at calming problems at bulls scotty and bouys...
4.overall seems value is against lakers..jmho..gl
I was just thinking about Jackson's merits. Obviously, he can't work his players like puppets, but if he gets credit for being this great zen chemistry wizard, his reputation should suffer accordingly when he has great players who are underachieving. I just don't think he's all that. How do we measure a coach's contribution? The standard barometer is what he gets out of his players. If the coach is able to get great things out of average players, he gets an A. But if his players are delivering well below what they are capable of, then I say the coach gets an F.
Now, counterpoint would be there could easily have been chemistry problems in Chicago between Rodman and Pippen. But they still won championships. How do I resolve this with dissing Jackson in LA? Easy, I give Jordan the credit as player and leader.
And on a sidenote, rating the GM moves, adding Strickland to a tight mix gets an F as well. It makes adding Rider to the Lakers look like genius.
And while I'm generally riffing on NBA, I just want to address something that has bothered me for years: Charles Barkley holding some kind of grudge against the Phoenix organization because they didn't win a championship during his tenure. Look Charles if you make even one of those free throws against Houston, the Suns are the 95 champs. You have no one to blame but yourself. And FWIW, I blame you too.
And finally, allowing the zone next year is a very short-sighted idea IMO.
JG
Being a long suffering Suns fan I couldn't agree more. For some reason most of us still like the guy although he can't give up being an ass to Colangelo. Oh well, nothing is perfect in life.
The zone defense rule should quite a bit because I doubt any teams will play a real zone. The NBA is full of too many good players that can hit the open outside shot to play it exclusively. Obviously though its a huge killer against the Lakers because teams are just going to guard Shaq and Kobe and tell Grant and Shaw to beat them. What the rule will also do is reward solid rebounding players. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rodman in his prime-like numbers up there next year as solid board guys will sag more to the basket and get more boards. I think it will definitely improve scoring. Will it improve the quality of play? Well I don't know about that. Its hard to improve the game when the best players aren't playing 4 years of college ball. The lack of 4 years of college hurts in two ways. One is obviously the young men aren't anywhere as skilled as they might have been, but even more important, yet very unnoticed is that the colleges are becoming one or two man shows now and the "system" that they might have had is disappering. These kids come to play out of a system that was just give it to the star and watch him play, a la the NBA of today. Passing and running an offense take a backseat to players like Kobe, Francis, Carter who don't look to pass once they get the ball. How to correct this, I have no idea...
I blame Charles too caused me few thousands,I had Phoenix to win series and they were up 3-1 and up late in that game forced houston to foul. I watched that game at Golden Nugget about to cash in my ticket...ouch.
Yogi was right "it ain't over till it's over"
Heh, I was playing poker at Fort McDowell and actually had the numbers in the BB pool if he made one more free throw. Something like $2000 for the final numbers, and I was a grinding 10-20 pro, so the money would've been nice. So, I'm doubly mad at Charles.
JG
I still am waiting to get some series prices and do some last bit of reviewing, but for now I thought I would open the discussion up with some thoughts. Out of the East I really like Philly. In all other sports I don't like taking teams that had to scratch their last few games, but this is a team that needed a good stretch of playing together and getting some positive results and they did. Even when they lost they were playing like a top team. Its hard to go against the Devils, but I still remember how this team was so close to beating them last year and has probably improved their team since the Lindros distraction isn't there. Add in the best goalie in the league this year and this is a mighty tough team to beat. Washington could also play a factor as they have the great goalie and a playoff style of play with a few scorers but mostly tough two way players. The Devils are playing well but something about them doesn't strike me right. They play too much open ice hockey and their defense and goaltending haven't been top caliber this year. They and Ottawa will have a hard time winning 5-4 games in the playoffs. Same goes for the Pens. The Sabres could be the team to beat if they can get by the Flyers as you can't count out Hasek and company although they all don't look anything like the team of two years ago. Of course this is the playoffs so anything can happen, although I think absolutely nothing will happen with the Leafs. They are going downhill fast with an aging team and very suspect defense. The Canes will probably go down fast, but Irbe has done well in the playoffs before and he could engineer a couple of wins, but a series win isn't that likely.
In the West I have a feeling it could be deja vu. Dallas and Colorado roll on in, but Dallas is just playing superbly and they know they have the Avs number in the playoffs with two 7 game wins. Certainly the Avs could turn the tables, but the Stars have improved a bit from last year and the Avs added Blake, a guy I think only provides dubious addition come playoff time as he reminds me much of Sandis Ozolinsh a guy that looks offense too much for tight playoff hockey. The Wings are much like the Devils as their D just doesn't knock enough opponents off the puck and gives up too many counter attacks. Guess that is what happens when you have 40 something Larry Murphy as an anchor D guy. The Blues and Sharks could be tough matchups for the Avs as both have the type of goalies that could steal a series. Despite all the negativity, Turek could be a solid performer and erase all the question marks. The Sharks get badly needed help from returning Damphousse and at some point you have to figure Selanne starts firing it up. The bottom three don't look good although the Oilers are a solid team. They would be a solid surprise team in East but the top teams of the West are too much for them and as solid as Salo can be, I don't think he is the type of goalie that plays at a level to steal a series. The Kings and Canucks would be lucky to win 2 games between them, strickly .500 type teams especially with injuries to VAN. Of course the Kings will celebrate whenever they FINALLY win a playoff game.
My preliminary pick is to see the Flyers behind MVP Roman Cechmanek beat the Stars and the long suffering fans in Philly will finally see their first championship team since the Sixers of 83 and the crowd will be chanting "Eric Who?"...
As a Flyer season ticket holder and die hard fan, I sure hope that you are right, but experience tells me otherwise.
I was preparing myself for the Flyers to get bounced in the first round, before they impressively came back from the 3-0 deficit to the Pens, then went into Buffalo and beat Hasek. Those are two nice clutch wins and they did have a great run last year, but they cannot and will not come out of the East.
The argument has been made that Cechmanek has not been playoff tested. I won't make that one. Cechmanek is 29, not a wide eyed 20 year old kid. He has responded well (like he did today) in big games for the Flyers and played well under pressure in international events.
The problem is the offense. LeClair missed all but 15 games this season and was scoreless in his return before today. Simon Gagne also has not lit the lamp since he has returned from his separated shoulder injury and has to wear a harness that seems to hurt his shooting. And of course, the loss of Keith Primeau hurts badly. Primeau will be out until at least round 2, maybe more. And of course, like Gagne and LeClair and even Recchi earlier this season, he can't just step into a game off a big layoff and be at his best (especially in a Round 2 playoff game). This all boils down to this team having trouble scoring goals. If you are looking to bet on Flyers games, under might be more profitable.
But the biggest problem with the Flyers coming out of the East is the fact that they cannot beat the Devils. They couldn't last year, they couldn't in 95. They can't in the regular season and they can't in the postseason. Look up head to head play for the last 10 years.
The only way I see the Flyers coming out of the East is if they dont have to face the Devils. Pens take out Caps, then Devils perhaps? That's the only dream scenario I can cook up to think that my orange and black will be playing for Stanley in June.
As far as the West, I would tend to put Colorado and Detroit in the upper echelon. I don't see Dallas getting to the finals again, and they might have trouble with the Oilers. But I do not get to watch these teams very much during the season.
Glad to see the hockey post!
I think that Colorado is just too powerful to ignore this year... Sakic is coming off an MVP season, right into unrestricted free agency and he will be looking to make the biggest contract in hockey history this summer.. I truly believe that Belfour is the only goalie in the West that has a prayer to bring down the Avalanche.. and he's been suspect most of the year (granted recently he has played well)..
In the East, the favourite has to be New Jersey, but that almost seems like a curse.. Every year, the East is very tough to call and this year is no different.. Any team, even the Leafs (if Cujo catches fire) have a chance to come out here with the exception of Carolina.. I predict Ottawa, although it's really nothing more than a hunch..
Colorado over Ottawa..
Well last year I did this and got crushed in the series bets, but did well game to game. I usually do very well with regular season and just slightly above average with the playoffs so if anyone read me last year they probably took these with a grain of salt. I just look to incite some intelligent conversation more than anything. I certainly can't know enough about the teams so I hope others give me some insight and you have helped me with that.
Bill,
Interestiing post. I don't agree with your prediction, but you make some good arguments.
Here, after much consideration, are my predictions. Hope I don't embarass myself too bad.
New Jersey - Carolina.
New Jersey in 5. The Devils are way too much for the 'canes. Irbe played over 70 games this year. He needed a break, but they have been playing playoff games for weeks now, and it will take it's toll.
Ottawa - Toronto.
Ottawa in 6. The Leafs are team turmoil. The latest distraction is Gary Roberts saying he doesn't like playing with Darcy Tucker. Nice timing. Cujo could steal a game, but they are way overmatched by the Senators. Lalime is the question mark, but they have more firepower, and a better defence.
Washington - Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh in 7. This team has two of the best lines in hockey. Mario, Jagr and anyone are deadly. Follow that up with Kovalev, Straka and Lang, and Kolzig is going to see ALOT of rubber. I know that defense wins in the playoffs, but the Mario and co. have proven before that they are the exception. They will get only average goaltending with Hedberg and Snow, but that is all they will need.
Buffalo - Philadelphia.
Buffalo in 7. This is going to be a GREAT series. Goals are going to be at a premium. It could go either way, but I'm going to give the goaltending edge to Hasek. The Sabres made two excellent steals at the deadline, getting Audette and Heinze for nothing. Not getting something for Lindros and losing Primeau will cost the Flyers this year. How does Clarke keep his job? The Flyers should have won two cups by now. Can't wait for this one.
Colorado - Vancouver.
Colorado in 3. 8:) Canucks no match for anyone right now. Even with Naslund and Cassels they would be huge dogs. Without the teams two best offensive players, they are dead ducks.
Detroit - Los Angeles.
Detroit in 5. I went to a couple of Kings games this month, and they really are quite thin. After you get past the Palffy line, there are not much of a threat. Detroit are quite old and slow at the back, but it won't hurt them in this matchup.
Dallas - Edmonton.
Dallas in 6. These two rivals are going in opposite directions. Edmonton played well through February, but stumbled a little in April. Dallas has one of the best playoff goalies in the game, and a ton of experience. They seem to put it all together this time of year, and it looks like they are ready again.
San Jose - St. Louis.
San Jose in 7. The rematch. This year, the Blues will be ready. The problem is, Turek is not the goalie that Nabokov is. He was brutal in this series last year, letting in floaters from center, and he has not gotten much better this year. The Sharks get Damphousse back, and they have a great playoff player in Ricci. Selanne is starting to settle in, and the second line is very underrated. Another great one to watch.
Semis.
Colorado - San Jose. Colorado in 6. Detroit - Dallas. Dallas in 6.
New Jersey - Pittsburgh. New Jersey in 7. Ottawa - Buffalo. Buffalo in 6.
Colorado - Dallas. Colorado in 7. New Jersey - Buffalo. New Jersy in 6.
Colorado over New Jersey in 7.
The Avs win the toughest championship in sports.
Adam.
I'm not a sports bettor, but being Canadian I feel eminently qualifed to offer my 2c worth. In fact, it would be close to unpatriotic not to provide my take.
EAST
NJ - CAR
Devils sweep. 5 max. Scott Stevens has lost a half-step, but I am tremendously impressed with NJ. They played the Oilers here about 3 weeks ago when the Oil was really rolling, as were NJ, and they looked tremendous. Great depth, scorers, checkers, and Brodeur will be one of Canada's goalies in the Olympics, so there are not hurting in net, IMO. Too many playoff rookies on the 'Canes.
OTT- TOR
Sens in 5. Leafs were horrible 2nd half, and Ottawa is peaking nicely. They have a ton of free agents to sign this summer, and limited dollars with which to do so, so I think they realize "This is it!" Jacques Martin very underrated as a coach, too, and his support staff is excellent. CUJO steals 1 game for the Buds.
WASH-PITT
Penguins in 6. Godzilla will be shell-shocked by the end of this series. No way Mario makes the comeback to lose out 1st Round; plus he can see the revenue for an extra round (or two) in the playoffs. Just don't look for too many 1-0 games in this series.
PHIL-BUF
Philly in 7. Winning yesterday to earn the extra home game was huge for Flyers. I have hated Bobby Clarke since he played junior against the Edmonton Oil Kings (except for Canada-Russia in '72) and nothing would please me more than to see them bounced, but I think they have a little too much for the Sabres. Primeau and Gagne out hurts, but LeClair looked good over the weekend. Cechmanek is a little older, but he is still an NHL playoff rookie. This is not the Czech Elite League. Hasek could engineer a mild upset, though.
WEST
COL-VCR
'Lanche roll. They have it all. Easy to go chalk here, but I just don't see them losing. Canucks will get 4 games of playoff experience, and that's about all, but Bryan Burke has done a nice job here, and they will be team to watch closely next year when injured players are back and Sedins start to mature.
DET-LA
DET in 7.Scotty always gets his teams to peak for playoffs, and will certainly not get outcoached, but I have a funny feeling about this one for some reason. LA played very well down the stretch, and if The Cat gets hot, you never know. There always seems to be a major 1st Round upset, and this one might be it. On paper, Wings should roll easily, buuuttt.......
DAL-EDM
Oilers sweep!
Sorry, I lost it there for a second. This will be a long, tough series, but I have to go with Dallas in 6 or 7. Teams know each other well after meeting past four years, but Oil have just no margin for error with these guys. I think MacT will have them better prepared than Ron Low did past several years. Marchant,Grier, and Moreau just have to control Modano's line, or it will be short series. As an aside, how has Mike Modano never scored 50 in this league? All the tools, but what about the toolbox?
Stars are aging, and IF Oilers can steal one of 1st 2 games in D-town, possible upset in 6. If we go 2 down out of chute, no chance.
STL-SJ
Two weeks ago, I would have picked STL easy, but I see signs of life from Sharks near the end. Teemu is out of post-Kariya funk, and getting Vinnie D. back won't hurt, either. Blues will ride Pronger and MacInnis as far as they can take 'em. Has Tkachuk reported from Phoenix yet? Key player for Blues - Pavol Demitra. If melon is OK, they need him going. Sharks in 6.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs is the toughest tournament in pro sports. Two months of playing virtually every 2nd day for maybe $2M per game. It is basically one long Minor Hockey Week for the players where The Title is everything. Only the strong survive and experience means so much. There are dozens of stories where players have not even so much as touched The Stanley Cup trophy because they felt that until they won it, they were not worthy.
Colorado in 7 over the Devils.
Well all the comments about it being the toughest championship in sports, well maybe. It is the most physically demanding, but I won't say its the toughest to win because the playoffs can be decided too much by a hot goalie. Without a doubt the toughest championship to win without the "goods" is the NBA because one of the top 2 or 3 teams wins it almost every year as some might say it should be. Too often has the Stanley Cup been won or at least competed for with a lower ranked team that got a hot goalie or a couple of great bounces. Hey I am Sharks fan and will be the first to admit without lucky bounces NO WAY we beat the Blues last year. They have a better team this year so they might do it, but that puck was just rolling so funny and for them last year. You will often see teams that just get that for them, they get outshot 40-20 and still win 2-1. That is important to be careful of, especially early on because good teams can fold if faced with adversity so don't start laying big wood on a team that you think should respond and make a comeback because they were a top team in the regular season.
On further review one thing that I think might surprise is that I don't know if Colorado is really as solid as they are getting credit for. They have the best players in many positions, but they tend to get distracted and make mistakes often. Roy can be great when he is on, but he does occasionally put up a bad game. This Vancouver team looks gutless, but then again they are the ultimate type of team you like here. They know they are expected to get swept so they have nothing to lose and they will take their shots at this team. They might win a game or two before the Avs wake up and put it to them. The team that got the best draw is Dallas because they know the Oilers well with the annual playoff matchup it seems. They also know how good they can be and will be focused from game one. It will be a tougher series than most, but this veteran and experienced team needs exactly this to get rolling. A lot of people didn't think they could beat the Avs last year and the same goes for this year, but I just think they have their number and they will find a way to win it away from them again. The Kings are just in way over their heads here and should be easier fodder for the Wings. Of all the teams the Wings would love to meet this is the one. The Kings have the big line as mentioned and the Wings will just put their checking line on them and shut them down. Osgood/Legace isn't the stuff of champs though, but its enough to get by Potvin and company in 4 or 5. The Sharks have a much better team this year than last and if they win it certainly won't be a fluke this time. Adding Selanne and Damphousse is so important to a team that couldn't get 3 goals in the net too many times near the end of the regular season. I don't think that you can say the Blues have revenge because its the playoffs and no one has that kind of an edge at this stage.
In the East I think Carolina will surprise too and get a couple of games off the Devils. Another team with nothing to lose and a lot to gain they will show some pride and they have a guy that can be spectacular at times. They probably won't win it, but I wouldn't say its the biggest shock if they did pull the upset. I see a tiny crack open there for them to take it. The Sens should have an easier time with the Leafs and if it weren't for Cujo vs. Lalime I would definitely look for a sweep. However that goalie matchup definitely could favor the Leafs so watch out. Cujo is definitely capable of stealing two games here and if Lalime gives one away the Sens will be home early. The Caps are getting no credit, even being a dog in the series price, but this is pure public team against solid team that won't make have the same fate two years in a row. Kolzig will be on this time and I think the rugged checking line of the Caps should slow down the big guns of the Pens. I think this could be a quicker series than many think. Then there is the 4-5 death match. What a potential series it could be. Philly is still my pick to surprise and win it all. I like the character of the team and the fact that they are all rallied around LeClair with confidence they can make it happen. Boucher was the untested rookie and he did just fine last year, Cechmanek is the best in the league and might do even better. Not taking anything away from Hasek, but Roman has the better squad in front of him.
As for series bets, I saw some lines and was quite surprised. The Sharks getting +250 is ridiculous, this series is only slightly in favor of the Blues. The Wings laying -650 should be easy money too, although that Argentina soccer game was easier :) In any case, if you don't mind laying big wood this should be like another investment. I would look to find a book that will take parlays on the series prices and just parlay whoever you like with the Wings and Avs (-800) as that should be some extra add on to your winnings. Like I say, I wouldn't lay -700 on the Devils because I see some risk in it and they have a much more dangerous opponent than Vancouver or LA. Lastly, my best bet would be to take the Caps to play their hockey and prove defense first wins in the playoffs at +105.
here's my ideas about the series..
col-van.. colorado will win.. i agree that they are not playing their best right now. the best thing that can happen to them is to get blake back in the mix and have some nice wins to gain momentum for the next series. the series price on col is so high it can't be any real value, but rest assured they will win.. 5 or 6.. probably 5.
det-la.. detroit rolling at the right time. great scoring depth. scotty bowman figures out a way to shut down palffy. la probably a little better team than most people giving credit for, but i see it as the same as the colorado series.. det wins in 5 or 6.
dal-edm.. edmonton a team with some real speed and the isles never should have given up on salo. this will depend on belfour. in my eyes belfour was THE goalie for 98-99 and 99-00.. hasn't been quite the same this year. how this series goes will depend on him and the stars scoring depth, meaning joe nieuwendyk. i'm wondering if the gas isn't out of his tank. overall, i think edmonton will be able to give them a bit of a series. an upset here wouldn't shock me, but it's likely dallas in 6 or maybe 7.
stl-sj.. stl getting healthy and playing pretty well the week coming into the playoffs. 2 unproven playoff goalies. the addition of selanne cancelled out by the addition of tkachuk. i have a feeling that st louis has something to prove here and they will take this series. sj at +210 looks to some to be a tad steep, i think that line is either about right or maybe a tad generous. stl in 6.
nj-car.. unlike wildbill, i dont see this as a series at all.. the devils defensively sound and have really opened up the offense this year. irbe definitely showing the wear of the long season and all the games they ask him to play. devils finally smart this year in trading for john vanbiesbrouck and giving marty some rest down the stretch. carolina just cannot match up with the devils and they will get crushed. nj in 4 or 5..
ott-tor.. this is the eastern series that could potentially provide an upset. cujo is very dangerous in a series and can steal it all by himself. lalime untested in the playoffs. the bonk-hossa-arvedsson line isn't clicking like it was early in the season, if ottawa is going to win this series this line will have to pick up their play. i see this as almost a coin flip (slight edge ott).. probably going 7.
was-pit.. washington not playing as well coming down the stretch. bondra very cold in the last 10 games. caps with something to prove after last years embarrassment. the first 2 games @ wash will be very interesting. my gut tells me pittsburgh has too much firepower for the caps. how'd you like to deal with jagr and lemieux on one line.. then straka-lang-kovalev as round 2? kovalev is a playoff performer who can step it up and has had a most impressive and career year. given how these teams are playing coming into the series i have to like the pens in 6.
buf-phi.. as a flyer fan, it's hard to distinguish what my head says from what my heart says. cechmanek is for real.. he will be as good in the playoffs as he was in the regular season. he does show up for big games and has gone 4-0-0 against buffalo this year (2 shutouts, only giving up 2 goals in 4 games if i remember correctly). if the flyers lose this series it will be because their offense cannot put up any points. like i posted before and everyone acknowledges, goals will be hard to come by. leclair is warming at just the right time. if audette and heinze can't spark that buffalo offense they will have trouble. the satan line will go against manderville-hull-ranhiem line in the first 2 games and will most likely be shut down. it's going to be by far the best series in the first round, but the flyers 4-0-0 record this season, combined with their playoff meetings almost every year since 1995 make me give a strong lean to the flyers.. flyers in 6 or 7.
as far as wagering goes, if any series is like the argentina soccer wager, it's the devils at -700. i dont see alot of value in any of the lines but if forced to plunk down a wager or two, i'd go with devils -700 and toronto +220.. maybe flyers -105 (lines quoted from www.wsex.com).
The Cup is the toughest championship to get. You need to go through 4 wars to win it. The NBA you can coast through a round or 2. The hot goalie theory is exactly why it is the toughest. No matter what the matchup is, you can't coast. You get lazy, you lose. One mistake can be the game. OT is a monster in itself. Where else can you play a full game, then play another full game or more, sudden death style, then turn around and have to do it all over again. There is nothing better, nothing tougher. Guys play with all sorts of injuries that other sports would never dream of playing. Bob Baun scores a game winner on a fractured leg. There are many other stories about the Cup that prove what a war it is.
Has anyone posted an opinion on Stations casinos new single deck game?
Here are the rules: *player may double on any number of cards, even after splitting and hitting(including aces) *player may split equal valued cards, including aces, up to three times *player may surrender one half of bet on any number of cards totaling lessthan 21, even after hitting, splitting, or doubling down *any hand totaling 20, or less with 6 cards pays even money instantly(no instant winners or bonuses on double down hands) *any hand totaling 21 with 5, or more cards pays 2 to 1 instantly(no bonus on double down hands) *any player blackjack is a guaranteed winner; blackjack in diamonds pays 2 to 1; ANY OTHER BLACKJACK PAYS EVEN MONEY
I would guess that they've done the math and that this (like most gimmick games) is a loser.
Just for starters, in a single deck you should get 3.6% blackjacks, of which only 0.3% will be suited in diamonds. This works out to a 1.5% disadvantage compared to 3:2 payoffs for all blackjacks.
There are a lot of attractive rules there to offset this handicap, but are they worth 1.5%???
>>There are a lot of attractive rules there to offset this handicap, but are they worth 1.5%???<<
Still worse than 1% against you even with the collection of rules.
Since I am a virtual novice at expert BJ, take this question at face value:
With this set of rules can there be instances of huge edge when there are mostly small cards left?
Danny
I don't have my books with me right now, but check Griffins' "Theory of Blackjack" for the disadvantage of this game off the top. I'll look at it later. You're going to need that 3:2 on the natural. Also, and just as important is can you get the game heads up and what's the pen? Chances are you'd be better off downtown.
betelgeusebetelgeusebetelgeuse
Washington-Indiana OVER 190
You must be a professional handicapper.Every pick you give you get wrong.That is just as hard as getting them right.Keep up the great consistent work.Tonite I bet the under and made $100 -thanks!
ps.you should say if you get a pick right you wont post again.
LOL...you're smart man,I think I am a pro(not!)
Have you ever know a pro on losing streak?I hope you make a lot of money fade my picks. GL.
Anytime you start touting something as a "lock" you are in trouble. If you are going to post picks and claim them to be locks, do it with some tongue in cheek. During the football season, I was posting my "shoe in" of the week. Although they were games I liked very much, I think those who read them knew that by my calling it "Big Al's Shoe-in of the week" it was done with some humor attached. Fortunately, my shoe in's were fairly successful (especially the first 2/3rds of the season) so I got flamed very little. I think it is very tough to pick out a single basketball game and have it be a consistent winner. I have stated previously that I only bet football, the NCAA hoops tourney, and the NBA playoffs. These are areas where I feel comfortable with. I think some people make a mistake by betting every sport. I am looking forward to the NBA playoffs. I particularly like teams that are down 2-0 in a series and coming home for game 3. I like taking the home team in that situation. Of course, this is not a hard and fast rule as there are other factors involved, but I have been successful the past few years finding teams in this situation and having them cover. Just thought I'd throw that out there-anyone is welcome to comment.--Big Al--
Only 11 days away, look forward to see your picks
Good luck.
This isn't for me, but a friend has asked me if I know anywhere on the net that offers ten cent baseball lines. I wouldn't even know how to rate the reliability of offshore sites(well, I know, ask for others' opinions), so I'm asking you all. Is there anything like Paradisepoker (i.e. undisputed king for its genre) for sports betting on the net?
JG
Ten cent line info:
http://www.osga.com/dimeline.htm
Both of these sites are industry "watchdogs": http://majorwager.com/index.cfm
http://www.theprescription.com/
good luck. niatross
If you use only one book during bases then probably www.planetpinnacle.com is my suggestion as they use 8 cent lines up to around 150 then dime lines after.
New to betting baseball and am getting ready to open an account to do it - what are "dime lines" or "8 cent lines up to 150" in your example?
Sorry for the basic question...
I think wildbill busy working now I can answer your question,if you bet football or basketball that 20 cent lines dime lines is 10 cent if favorite is -130 dog will be + 120.
In baseball when favorite is big like -160 or more many place start to use 15 cent or more like -160 + 145 or -230 + 200 which is 30 cent lines, hope this help.
I have a question for everyone. How much can really be made at the track? How much might the best handicappers in the world make? $100,000/yr? more? Thanks
The "best" make zero since the house vig is outrageous. No serious bettor would go near this madhouse. I'm not saying it cannot be beat, but why play a 21 game with naturals paying even money, when other places are showing their hole cards and paying 2-1?
Sorry that's just a hypothetical. I don't know an actual 21 game that does that!
This is simply not true. I don't know the numbers, but there are people who beat the horses.
Danny
It can be beat. I know guys who do it but not a whole lot of them. Some infrequent opps are actually VERY strong. This mostly has to do with accumulated money that must be paid out.
Ugh. Reread my post. People do win. But the opportunities are few and far between. The really good pros concluce that it isn't worth their time, and move on.
Any game can be beat, just like I can make money working at McDonalds...... but I need to make real money to justify my time.
Beating the horses is very, very tough. It can be done and a few do it, but not that many, at least not for a six figure income year in and year out. As for the dogs...no comment. I think if someone is seriously interested in being a professional gambler, poker is the best game to try to make a go of it. Instead of spending your time studying handicapping methods for horses, put that time into poker related books and information. I only seriously gamble in two areas-poker and sports betting. This may not work for you, but it works for me.--Big Al--
Imagine a poker game with an 18% rake EACH hand with NO CAP!
I doubt it can be beat. The exception would be someone with inside info from a dirty track.
Adam.
I think it can be done. Heck, Andy Beyer did it and he tells of other people who did it. You have to know the sport very well and look for opportunities (they are few and far between), but someone who has put in the time can beat the races. You can't go to the track uninformed and bet every race...those are the donations. You might only play 1 race per day or maybe 1 per week. You just have to find the right races to bet on. GP
I am a professional horse player. I assure you that the best make over $100,000.
There are certain aspects of the game that makes it posible to overcome the high takeout. One way to look at it is it is like a poker game with no ante, no blinds, and no betting necessary until the river. You can just sit back until the last moment and analyze all the action and determine with high accuracy if you are geting good odds on your bet. Another big advantage is even though I am playing relatively big bets I am still playing directly against $2 bettors. I assure you that $2 horse players are as ignorant about horse racing as $2 poker players are about poker.
A study done in the mid 1980's found that 2% of horse players win consistantly. I think that today that figure is higher--there was very little Indian casino gambling in those days and I think that people that played the horses as a game of pure luck ( and there were alot of them back then) are now sitting in front of slot machines.
Since you id'd yourself as a pro horse player I have to ask, do you inside information? If not, why did you picks horses, where a dart thrower loses at over 15% of each dollar bet, vs.
football or hoops (4.54% for dartthrowers, 3% for dart throwers that shop around just a little)....or
bases (2.3% for dart thowers, less for dart throwers that shop).
And the above sports, unlike the track, allow you to lock in favorable spread lines.
I play the sports that offer the best odds. If I could bet Horse A -105 vs Horse B -105, and lock in my payout early, you would be amazed the time I might spend with it. But under the current rules? Sure, I could win, but IMO without insider information, it is a very inefficient way to make a living. Why would horses be any easier or harder than any other sport to handicap? All things being equal, choose the game that has the least vig (bases). Unfortunately, I know football the best, so my profit potential is lower due to my deficient knowledge in bases, clearly the game any true world class pro gambler would favor over any other.
If you can make 100k betting horses without insider info, then you could make 3x+ that with a similar competency at other sports.
I play the horses because that is what I first became aquainted with. As you might imagine from my presence on this web site I am now learning poker, not because I think it is neccesarily a more profitable game, but for a potential second income.
I believe horse racing is profitable because of the great number of unknowledgeable people playing the horses. The literature on handicapping is very poor compared with poker literature, although I might think it so because I know so much more about horse racing. So the only "inside information" I have is handicapping angles I haven't seen in any books or articles.
I think that having more then two potential outcomes of a horse race (along with ignorant betters) leads to bigger overlays then you ussualy get with sport betting. A typical horse race has only 3 or 4 true contenders, yet all the horses have money bet on them. This leads to alot of dead money in the pools.
Indeed, it is possible to win by process of elimination-- rejecting horses that have virtually no chance of winning until the total amount of money bet on these rejects comfortable exceeds the take-out at this particular track. At this point however you decide to bet the remaining horses will show a long term profit. You could pull a name out af a hat, bet the longest price horse, or bet all of the remaining horses, and will still show a long term profit.
I too try to lock in my odds-- as do all winning players-- by betting as late as possible. While this is not perfect with experience I rarely get hurt by late money driving down my odds. I stay away from horses with a slim edge on the tote board if the odds are likely to drop late, these things can be predicted.
There is considerable difference in the takeout rate from track to track, yet I find almost no correlation between low takeout and increased profits. This leads me to believe that there are many important factors in profitability besides the rake. I think this is true between different forms of gambling too. The most important being the skill of the players you are up against.
I was out at Bellagio for our weekly bettor get-togethers and though I would stop off and play poker for awhile. I ran into an old buddy of mine at the 15-30 game with a seat open next to him so I played in a pretty tight game. According to him there were 4 players that were either pros or wannabe pros. These guys were all talking about betting on baseball and my god they had some wacky ideas. Now I always hear from people about how poker players are some of the best bettors (Ray Zee seems to mention it alot), but these guys were just off on Mars or something. One guy said all one has to do to beat baseball is bet against a pitcher that has thrown 120 pitches or more his last time out. Well first of all, does this guy realize how many pitchers do that anymore? Doesn't he realize Tommy Lasorda no longer manages the Dodgers? I tried to explain to him the only guys that do it are guys throwing no-no's or guys that are stud pitchers. Curt Schilling used to do it all the time and yet it never slowed him down. Pedro Martinez did it alot in Montreal and it never showed an effect. On the other hand I can almost assure you Eric Gagne or Dave Mlicki will never throw that many pitches and these are the kind of guys you would bet against if they did actually do it! Faulty thinking and I was wondering how could a guy make it as a poker pro with such lazy method of sports betting. So Ray and all the others, why is it the impression of poker players is that of pretty savvy sports bettors when in fact I have run across hundreds that seemed to espouse similar crappy theories yet could give me a hundred reasons why a check raise with their hand was good? I will be the first to admit my poker play ain't that good, but it certainly isn't for a lack of good foundation and knowledge of the game. These guys seem to only know the basics of the game, but many lack even a fundamental understanding of what things help you win at sports whereas they could go on and on about how to win at poker. Is it just a different breed of animal or something?
I don't think you can categorize people as either Poker Players or Sports Bettors. Some Poker Players are VERY GOOD sports bettors (they know that throwing 120 pitches last time out doesn't necessarily mean they are going to lose their next outing), and there are some sports bettors that are VERY GOOD poker players. It's not a different breed, just people doing what they like to do. I do BOTH...but, I get more enjoyment out of poker....it's a game where you are constantly having to match wits with your opponents...you are involved in the game....you determine your own outcome....a good sports bettor determines whether he is a winner or loser also, but he is not directly involved in his game...if i bet on the Reds, guess who determines whether i win or lose?? Not me, but the Reds. I see your point though....how could someone good enough (or smart enough) to be a pro poker player be such a NITWIT when it comes to another type of gambling....you would think he would have researched it more and learned more about what's important to being a winning sports bettor.
I'm a very good poker player, but I think that in any endeavour admitting how much you don't know is a big first step. These guys are phonies. There are a lot of wannabe poker pros in Vegas. Let's see where they are 5 years from now. I have a system I have to admit, but I would never say something like I could beat baseball based on one parameter. My system is find a situation where the public is piling on something like crazy and then find reasons to be contra. Of course, I haven't made a bet in 14 years since PennSt-Miami in the Fiesta Bowl, but I still like my "system." :)
JG
Psu 14, Mia 10. Vinny off a motor scooter tragic accident. I remember it well.
I know a lot of great sports bettors that suck at poker. And I know great poker authors that literally our fishes at sports knowledge/betting ability.
The reason that perception about poker players exists probably because of the "Poker Players" syndicate featuring two guys named Doyle and Chip whose organization make some pretty huge sports wagers. I am not sure how successful they are, but I know they are pretty well feared.
As for why poker players are so foolish about sports wagering? Well, it's the same reason I'm so useless at poker playing. I am primarily a sports bettor and once I got good at that, I thought it would be a piece of cake to dominate another facet of advantage gambling. Not so, hence my early retirement from poker. The reverse probably happens a lot. You have educated gamblers trying to crossover. It's not that easy. Having a poker foundation helps, but it still takes years of experience at sports to get good. That's my take.
Later,
MDMAniac
Be glad, these guys probably think they are the sh!t and throw a lot of money into the marketplace. Without square money... well you know the rest.
If you can get me at your poker game, you should be able to win AND have fun.
1. Games with auctions on Puts on Kings and such 2. I suck at the Game 3. We take a 5% rake. But it goes NOT to the house, but to "entertainment".
:)
New Jersey Devils tonight to win by 1.5 Odds are just over 2 to 1 I like this bet because New Jersey is pretty tough to beat at home, and as cup favourites, they will be looking to make an early impact!!
Over 2 to 1? What are you talking about? The price on the game is NJ -1.5 +110, almost even money unless you found someone willing to give gifts...
That's what I was thinking it should have been, I got 2.1 to 1 at www.intertops.com, and when I checked back at 6:30, it was still 2.05 to 1..
Sorry about that, my head must be spinning.. When I said 2 to 1, I meant just over 1 to 1 (I was thinking 2 times).. Still by far the best bet on the board tonight I'd say..
Alright, that makes sense. I was about to ask you where I can sign up for odds like that!
I'm late
Utah-Milwaukee UNDER 194
Will Win Or .....
Maybe you should start doing something else...although I will give you some credit...it does take some form of skill to consistently pick the wrong end of a game...
Thank you man, may be $$$man is just a bad luck ,have to get new name may be ˘man,Łman or Ąman.
I saw a very weird and out of place line tonight on Canbet. It has the Oilers game at 5.5 over +110. This seems like a terrible line. My only problem is that I really like this game over and of course would rather just bet over 4.5 -120 that other books are offering. My thought is what do all of you reckon is the advantage of just going for the middle? Obviously 5 is a huge number to middle in a playoff game, or a regular season game for that matter. Only thing is I just feel a 6 or 7 goal game coming on here. Not sure what I will do although I am thinking that Canbet number is either a mistake and will be taken down or will be moved by the money before long. My gut feeling is to just stick with the over, but I might also make take a shot at the middle as well.
So far so good for my bets. Carolina stunk and the Cechmanek really let me down, but the Canucks kept it close and the Caps found a way to win after yesterday with the Wings winning closer than I thought they would. My totals though are doing well as I went 2-0 with overs on the Wings and Canucks. I think this round is always one to look for over bets. The public drops the number too much for the first round or two when the teams are not yet in complete defensive mode. I probably will avoid the Flyers series though because neither team has any serious threats and I think the Sharks-Blues styles will call for few goals. I do think the Sens game is worth an over look and as well as the Oilers as I mentioned, and pass the other series totals for the next games. For game 2's I like the Sharks to bounce back and I think the Canucks will be demoralized by how this game ended and probably will mail this one in before being competitive back at home. I would bet the Wings, but the injuries haven't brought the price down below -200 so I will pass there. The Flyers line went up too much at -160 so I will pass there and bet them in Buffalo. Ottawa might be worth a look for game one on the 1.5 line as I think they will either lose a close one or win the game easy. No line up yet for the Caps, but I expect them to come in as dogs and I probably will play the strong home ice team to cash for me again. I still think the Canes could make this series at least competitive, but this first effort worries me and I want to see something before putting more money behind them. All in all I can't say anything surprised me so far except for how soft Cechmanek played in game one. I really expected him to do fine and not feel the first playoff pressure, but so much for that. This team can still win the series though even if they fall behind 0-2 because I see them as being a strong road team. Just have to hope the goalie doesn't give another game away like that.
bet 1/2 at -120 over 4.5 and 1/2 at +120 over 5.5...jmho, but your style seems more to be laying prices on extremely likely events, my style is getting betterpayoffs, walking back to houston broke, thanks for great posr wb,,,gl
Do not play OV 5.5 +110. You are getting screwed. I have a feeling that line should be OV 5 +110 as that coincides more with the half goal escalation. At 5.5 OV +110 the value is clearly with the under. Play it under or find somewhere else to play your over.
Oh please, there is no way I would play over 5.5 at plus odds, I just brought that number up because of its middle possibilities should you bet the under. Only a fool would bet over on that number when over 4.5 -120 is available. Yeah at over 5 +10 you might have a fair number in the regular season, but in the playoffs even that isn't properly reflecting the correct total price move. I would venture that half goals are worth close to 60 cents or more when you are around 5 goals in the playoffs since you have to break ties so any 2-2 game is going to end up 3-2 unlike the regular season where it can stay at 4 goals.
I definitely agree on the over 4.5 call.. I'm looking for more overtime in this series, and after the last game, I don't think we're in for another 2-1 battle.. Say 3-2 Dallas in OT, or 4-2 on an empty netter..
How much do you have to bet these days to get a nickel line? I had read somewhere that people who place a lot of bets will be given a nickel line in Vegas, but I only hear people talk about dime lines and occasionally an .08 line with an offshore place. What's the best line you can get out there?
Nickel lines are unknown these days, at least that I know of. Yes eight cent lines exist at Pinnacle and a couple of other books and some books use a graduated line that gives eight or nine cents on the lowest numbers (under -120). Nickel lines were offered by Barbary Coast in the early 90s, I think it was 2 seasons and then the next season Caesars went to them as well to offset the fact that they couldn't take NBA or NHL action. Also they offset some risk by opening up the numbers at 9-9:30 when the Stardust had been taking dime line action for over an hour. In all, nickel lines are pretty unsustainable for a book as that basically means they are just one move away from being in a bad spot. Dime lines give them some space for error, but I wouldn't expect much lower than eight cents unless the book really needs the action.
Boston-Indiana UNDER 191
Utah -9.5
Houston-Portland Under 189
Will Go 3-0 Or ...
No way the Reds sweep at Shea. $170 is a high price, but the price only matters when you lose. Lay the wood and have a Happy Easter. Go mets!
Freakon
Looking at the numbers for Monday, I noticed some very interesting "disconnected" logic to the lines in regards to the straight money lines and the goal lines. For Phl-Buf, the Sabres are -165 and -1.5 +270 (using Pinnacle's numbers, but most places are about the same). For Ott-Tor, the Leafs are -105 (smallest of dogs) and -1.5 +250. SJ-Stl has the Blues -110 (even game) and -1.5 +250. Each game has a pretty close totals in relations to each other with all posted at 4.5. Therefore something is seriously wrong with the Buffalo price if you think the other games are properly priced considering the value of the additional 1.5. If the games had differing totals then it could be at least somewhat justified, but these games have similar totals. Even worse this is saying the team most likely to win is also the team least likely to win by 2 or more goals which anyone who has even basic common knowledge should know isn't true. It makes no sense at all. I really don't know how much I like the Sabres to win this game, especially by the margin, but still it seems there is a lot of value taking them on that money line and hoping the Flyers don't show up emotionally or the Sabres can get an empty netter.
lets start out by saying I am a very easly reconizable person. so once I get caught card counting my chances of ever getting away with it on another day are pretty slim. so I was wondering what are my honest chances of being able to employ a card counting system on a regular basis without getting caught? and if I do get caught what are the penalties? do I get to keep my winnings so far, or do I get dumped in a shallow hole?
Very good, if you practice enough to play smoothly, avoid late bet changes and don't move your lips. Play like the tourists and don't draw to A7. I haven't doubled on small soft hands in twenty years for this reason. Don't "poker riffle" your chips. Don't be shy, but never verbally justify a bet change: the tourists don't. If a pit boss enjoins you in conversation, ignore the card counting and chat with him until he losses interest or leaves. Insure most or all of your naturals. Make up for this by chipping up agressively when it is to your advantage.
The money is always yours. The only penalties are not being allowed to play 21, being told to leave or being ejected under threat of arrest for trespass if you return (they can do this.)
treatment of counters varies considerable from state to state...nevada has laws very favourable to casino industry..suprise,suprise...gl
Your chances of not being barred are great, since you have a slim chance of ever being profitable based on your current limited knowledge of probability shown in your above post on CSMs!
Caveat, you may still be head and shoulders above 80% of the American public.
where am I wrong fez?
I was beaten to the punch. See the other post.
Re: probability. An example is worth a 1000 words.
You roll a pair of regular dice. What is the probablity you roll an even number? First answer and then scroll down for the correct answer and the best way to solve:
Answer 1: 50%. 2 is 1/36. 4 is 3/36.....etc, sum them all and you get 18/36. A good method, but terribly inefficient way to solve.
Answer 2: 50%. Solve by inspection. Since a die has an even number of spots (6), it is obvious that the odd/even bet on a even numbered die or set of dies is basically a coinflip. It comes down to the last die, with 1-3-or 5 generating 1 outcome, and 2-4-6 the other. 50% odd/even regardless of throwing 1 or 100 die.
When you start answering using logic like in answer 2, is when you have "arrived" thinking out of the box. But to get to step 2, you usually need the basic foundation of Answer 1 tecnhiques.
as I understand it, a full deck is -ev for the player (+ev) for the house. and conversely the 6 deck shoe when freshly shuffled and full is the same. However in a normal shoe game streaks do happen and weither you press your bets to take advantage of them or not +ev for the player situations do happen. It seems to me that the new continous shoe machines (where a hand or two is played and then fed back into the machine to be shuffled back into the decks) are designed to eliminate this phenomina. If this is the case would that not eliminate many of the "winning sessions" that the average player seems to luck into, thus meaning fewer people leave happy, and hurting the casino industry overall. lets be honest If NOBODY ever walked away a winner these places would go out of business, but that seems to be the direction these machines are trying to take it? Is my logic sound here or has the casino so ingraned loosing at gambeling into the american psyche that most people will not notice?
anybody else have any thoughts on these infernal machines?
Nobody ever went broke underestimating the American people.
...or Canadian people either. :-)
was the greatest thing ever invented to promote bj play...smart casino ownwer's understand this...corporate types do not...jmho...gl..see you at silver star..
There are games much worse than blackjack....and people still walk away winners (just enough to keep them coming back). Roulette is a good example (approx .94 returned per $1 bet)...but, you can still leave ahead after a single session. If you play Basic Strategy (without counting) you are much better off at a Blackjack table than you are playing roulette. But, still....casinos make plenty of money on roulette. Bottome line...they can do anything they want with the shoes....it might frustrate good players...but, people will continue to play....hence, the casino will still make money!
I asked about this very thing a few weeks back and an astute poster pointed out that once the cut card is inserted in a deck or a shoe, it ADDS to the house edge by virtue of the fact that when lots of high cards come out, (and the deck is good for the house) more hands are dealt since fewer cards were needed. Conversely, when lots of little cards come out, more of them are needed per hand and the cut card is reached MORE QUICKLY when the deck is favorable to the player. Therefore, (according to whoever answered my post) the perpetual shufflers actually eliminate this phenomena and ADD a slight edge for the non-counting players. Why would the house do this? I'm guessing the increase in VOLUME because of reduced shuffling time more than overcomes the decrease in edge.
Make sense?
I don't think what the intial poster wrote is correct. I suspect for the flat bettor the shuffle machines hardly change his hourly rate. This should be clear because it instead of making alot of bets at varying counts (which average to some small negative count), he instead makes almost all his bets this small negative count. So his expectation should be about the same.
If you are not a flat bettor then things are obviously different.
So I don't think these machine will change the bottom line that much. It does however allow continuous dealing w/o shuffling which means more money for the casino.
These machines are bad news for serious players but from what ive seen thsee machines are only used for lower limit bj. But as one or two others said ," thorps book was the best things for casino bj." Thus the casino may lose the interest of some people who may decide to play bj becasue of these machines.
"For the flat bettor the shuffle machines hardly change his hourly rate. This should be clear because it instead of making alot of bets at varying counts (which average to some small negative count), he instead makes almost all his bets this small negative count."
It has already been explained that the Cut-Card Effect is neutralized with a Continuous Shuffling Machine, and, thus, the house advantage against the Basic Strategist is actually lowered .
The Card Counter's potential edge is nullified, of course, with a CSM, and the best he look forward to is the Basic Strategist's disadvantage.
And one more time: CSMs are not the good news exactly that casinos have been waiting for. The bean counters look at hands per hour, do the multiplication and are happy. The pit stiffs see the (unfortunately) crowded tables and smile. The managers will tell you they're making out like bandits, as always. But the truth is not that. (They'll figure it out eventually.)
"It has already been explained that the Cut-Card Effect is neutralized with a Continuous Shuffling Machine, and, thus, the house advantage against the Basic Strategist is actually lowered ."
I don't see hwo this is true and still stand by my original argument. It could be but certinaly not for any reasons anyone listed here.
Please look up my post titled "Lux" somewhere below. If something still isn't clear let me know and I will try to offer more.
Take care.
It has already been explained that the Cut-Card Effect is neutralized with a Continuous Shuffling Machine, and, thus, the house advantage against the Basic Strategist is actually lowered .
Cyrus, if you haven't looked at the innards of one of these machines or spent hours clocking the damn thing, don't speculate about what is going on inside.
As a data fetishist you can appreciate what I'm saying right?
Here's my overpriced 2 cents...
The reason for the machines is most likely that the house does not want to have to monitor the games for card counters and shuffle tracking, or lose hands to shuffling time.
THe CSMs do have a shuffle point. It is 1/2 a deck or so into the shoe. I doubt this has much impact on the house edge compared to a deeper cut, but someone could easily run some simulations to resolve this.
THe security has to be expensive, and when I was last in LV, almost all of the small games at the "nicer" places had these machines. THe vast majority of counters aren't high stakes players, and making them play $25 shoe games to avoid CSMs is as good as barring them. I also saw a lot of H17 shoes, esp. with lower betting limits, and I think this is a cheaper way to the same end - these games are not worth the effort without good penetration (which few have) unless you can spread your bets a ton.
Of course, blackjack became popular because you can count cards and try to win. The casinos got the public to keep playing the multi-deck games, but I wonder if the CSM games will "cross the line" and ultimately reduce the action at the tables.
Just a few thoughts.
I noticed an interesting bet available at intertops.com on Michael Jordan's possible return.. The odds are in favor of a return, and I find this a little bit strange... Obviously, the book has adjusted the odds in response to bets made by the public, but what I don't understand is why so many people think he is coming back?.. Especially to play with the dismal Wizards.. The implementation of the zone defense seems to work against Michael (that is if he's playing for a weaker team), which strongly goes against his coming back to play next year... Plus, he would have to sell his interests in the team.. Any thoughts?
My only thought on the subject is that the max wager on this event is currently..get this..$10! I wanted to take the "no" as well, but obviously thats not a real option for those values.
Oh man, I don't believe it's so low.. I wonder what the benefit is to the book at even offering such a bet.. Too bad
They do that kind of crap all the time, and it makes no sense. Though its usually around $55 for those types of things. But even that is basically pointless. Does anyone else know why intertops sets such lines?
Well isn't it obvious? We are all talking about INTERTOPS so such a silly limit gives them the chance to get their names publicized for absolutely no cost. This book even makes press releases all the times to the business community about what they offer on occasion so its a typical press garnering idea for them and they will advertise the hell out of it.
Oilers get stuffed for 58 minutes by very effective checking scheme from the Stars, and then Belfour ignites the comeback by once again needlessly wandering from his crease. Then the buzzer-beater ties 'er up and bedlam at Skyreach.
Too bad Benny Hogue spoils the party. That hurt.
Is it just me, or is there more intensity in about 5 minutes of this series than in most of the other games? These two teams do NOT like each other.
Hardest check of the playoffs to date: Scott Stevens on Shane Willis with 10 seconds left in a 2-0 game. You would think these guys would learn to keep their heads up cutting across the middle with this guy in the neighborhood.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
Dallas wins series 4-2!
The Oilers usually do this to the Stars, they give them some serious battles and get the juices flowing, but rarely threaten them in terms of winning the series. Its always a good way to start the playoffs and I think the Stars are still on track to win the West and with the Flyers out I like them to win the Cup.
New Jersey -1.5 +150 sounds pretty good to me.. If for no better reason than the odds.. I'm really looking forward to seeing the lines on the Toronto, New Jersey series..
Detroit Over LA looks like a good call tonight also as the Wings will be winning one for their fallen captain.. I really like not having to give the extra goal on this game as I still suspect it will be a close one..
Toronto against New Jersey will probably see the Devils -340/+280 if the Leafs end it in 4 or 5.
I like the Red Wings game over a lot. I don't think the teams can keep up defensive games as this is a crucial game and both teams will go to what has gotten them this far, plain and simple scoring. The price has come down drastically too, with it being a 5 under, something no one would have imagined a few days ago especially after a 5-3 game one. The series could get interesting, I think the Wings are a bit overpriced right now. Hard to say how much they miss Yzerman, but in the end if the games start opening up like I suspect then the Wings are at an advantage as I think they possess the superior scoring depth and have the better checking line to neutralize the big scoring line of the Kings. However I can't see how they are -170 in LA considering the Kings showed life and grit at long last in the playoffs.
Also I am finally ready to go with the Pens-Caps game over. I stayed out of it so far as I felt the Caps would play a tight checking game and keep the scoring down, but its obvious they have to change things up a bit and maybe open things up. Not that its a great idea with the Pens, but right now they are not generating real chances. Besides the thought of this series playing 5 or 6 low scoring games seems unlikely, the time to get on the over is now. Of course I do favor the over in this round and have passed on many games that ended up going under, but will stick with my method. The side itself is hard to call because I can feel a strong Caps effort coming on. Problem is that they have made big efforts and come up empty as they just can't finish. If they can get two by Hedberg maybe the gates open and they finally get a nice win. Until they do I would say hold off on them. However if they can solve Hedberg and with a guy like Kolzig they could even win this one if they lose game 4 so I wouldn't put this in a must win yet.
I think the best is just to take two 3-0 teams to put it away easy and pass on the other. Ottawa might make a stand if it was at home but getting +236 with Canbet is just too tempting for me to pass on the Leafs -1.5. I also got the Avs -1.5 +170. I think the pressure is off the Avs as they have cleared all embarassing danger and should just methodically put the Canucks away. No doubt the Canucks have earned the respect I really thought they deserved as I said this should see a lot of close games. I think though just the pressure builds as each game was a disappointing loss for Van and this might be a spot where if they fall behind they just give in as the series is obviously on the verge of ending. I don't know about the Devils though because this spot just feels like a pride spot for the Canes. I won't back them here, but I would beware because it would be easy for the Devils just to take an easy game here and to have the Hurricanes come out with all they have to put at least one decent effort out. Unlike the Canucks, they have done NOTHING to garner any respect for their season and maybe they find a way to do it here and get a win or at least a close loss. I would just pass on that one or maybe look at the over with two under games and a letdown spot being presented to the defensive Devils.
The other series should be interesting. What do the Sharks do now after the Kipper puts in a huge game when it matters the most? What a gutsy call by Sutter though putting in his very green backup (the guy rarely played in the season) in the game that meant so much. Two years ago Sutter did a similar thing bringing in Shields in game 5 against the Avs coming off two road wins and a game the night before. Shields got toasted and the Sharks lost the series. This time it pays off but creates some controversy. For game 5 I think the value is on the Sharks because I think they have gotten to Pronger pretty bad. Tkachuk is pissed off too. The Sharks are one of the best on the road and I think getting benched for a game will get Nabokov to respond as I am certain he will be in the nets. When the Sharks win its usually a tight low scoring game so look at the under as well.
The Sabres probably finished off the Flyers with this win. The Flyers just haven't done all that much all series long. To win they will have to show a lot more energy and a lot more dominance. They can't keep expecting to win off nice bounces and tip shots, they will have to create some more offense to be able to beat Hasek three straight games. With two home games they could do it if they get some momentum, but I don't see them finding it in time. Might be an under in game 5, but I don't bet unders in this round so I will pass. However this might be the most intense and closely checked game of the series and could be a 1-0 OT game.
Lastly, what can you say about the Stars-Oilers? I really have no call on the next games, but I suspect very strongly the Stars will find a way to win two of them. The Oilers have really played well at times and have given the Stars their best shot, but all they could manage is 2-2 so far and now the Stars presence and experience should find a way to win. These games are tightly fought so I probably will pass on the totals for now.
Houston -5
San Antonio +1.5
Will Go 2-0...Again
I came across the website covers.com a week or so ago, and was immediately interested in the fact that they posted each days umpires for all of the given games, and had their track records for o/u's, strikes called percentage, etc for the last 4 years or so.
I'm more interested to know if any serious baseball handicapper considers this to be a useful tool, or if its just one more fairly useless statistic. And if anyone does think its potentially useful, do the linesmakers inflate/deflate lines based on certain people being behind the plate that day?
Great post. Of course, I'm biased, since I basically put up the same post on bj21.com. I think we concluded that
1) The linesmakers did not adjust for this, except maybe for 1 or 2 umps famouts for big/small zones.
2) I'm certain it is not useless
3) I don't know if there is enough of a difference to be very signficant
4) The new zone may well make you toss pre 2001 data into the trash can.
Every couple years there is someone that just goes crazy with this angle, along with weather/wind. Its a cyclical thing with a small edge to the handicapper that uses it. I think one of the keys is to know that there are a few umps that tend to be over/under umps year after year. Problem is that out of 10 guys that you might lump into a spot, they inexplicably change the next year often costing you some serious money that is just nickel and dimed back to you with the other umps still following tendency. As for the linemaker, he might move the number 3-5 cents, but not much more. So what you end up seeing is every couple years it works out real good, partly by luck and partly because its due. This type of pattern makes for interesting bettor reactions. The guy trying to win betting this angle gets frustrated because he isn't winning or losing much for a long period and thinks there must be a better way to bet bases and gives up on it. Occasionally he or someone else comes along at the right time and say "looky here I got a big winning method" when things go right and wouldn't you know it people come along and follow it. Believe me I have seen this happen 3 or 4 times in the past 12 years.
So my advice is if you really just want to follow this, well you will EVENTUALLY be awarded. If you choose to follow it as a "factor" it might add a bit to your bankroll, but most likely you will hit a mediocre spot where it will seem not to be adding anything to your handicapping and probably you will just give up. Personally I don't pay much attention to it because I rarely bet totals. Maybe there is a better angle to be found figuring out what umps are good for what pitchers, now there is something I have never seen. If you found out what ump Glavine has gone 15-4 with in his past maybe there you get a true edge very very few know about. If you watched a lot of games you might know which ump calls what kind of zone and put that knowledge to use considering what strengths each pitcher or lineup might have. Obviously this is a ton of work and keeps all but the most dedicated from doing it. Even in my pro betting days I never bothered as there is just too many angles like this you could try to figure out in how to beat bases.
Well, I can't speak for every pitcher, but I would have to say that the reports of Maddux's[1] demise have been greatly exaggerated.
JG
[1] Supposedly the posterboy for new strike zone victimhood
Orlando - 3
Seattle + 2.5
Seattle + $$$
Will Win All...Again
One quick thought on the NBA playoffs at this point-will comment/pick more games later. I would stay away from the Dalls Mavericks. I do not think this team will do much in the playoffs. This team reminds me of the Don Nelson Warrior teams in the late 80's/early 90's-win 50 or so games during the season then exit quickly from the playoffs. They have the same style as those old Warrior teams, exciting to watch and can win a lot of regular season games, but when in a playoff series against one team, they fall flat. They face Utah in the first round, and although Utah is starting to show some age, I think they will handle the Mavs fairly easily. First game is Saturday at Utah, Utah is a 3 1/2 point favorite. Take Utah and give the points.--Big Al--
In the first round, there should be way easier games to pick on then this series... I like the Raptors to avenge their exit last year, and they seem to be 3 point dogs early on.. Also, the Bucs should continue their domination over the Magic.. Lakers may be good to jump on early in the series, and then again at the end, but it seems like they always tend to have series that go the distance..
As a dog, I like Indiana vs. Philly.. I don't see Indiana winning this series, but with +7 I think they can win ATS..
you could be right. I have great confidence in you, especially after your New Jersey and Detroit picks the other night in hockey...
I had New Jersey on the 17th, when they won 4-0.. What can I say about the Wings though?.. They blew it big time
www.w3webb.com/lotto
Read Continuous Shuffling Machines. That's what I get for posting a sic...
...best time of the year to make consistent money in the NBA. You simply bet against the team which won and covered. This means no 1st game bets. This means no bets on teams that won and didn't cover or pushed in the previous game. That's it - over 60% for the last 6 yrs I've personally bet it. Others who have tracked it farther back say its been at this level or better for more than 10 yrs. Pretty sound. Do it. I will.
One last thing - consistent unit size. Don't vary your unit.
"You simply bet against the team which won and covered. This means no 1st game bets. This means no bets on teams that won and didn't cover or pushed in the previous game.".....LOL.
"One last thing - consistent unit size. Don't vary your unit.".....LOL.
I used to play this one religiously. It ain't what it used to be by any means. I would modify this one to include two rules:
1. Bet against teams that cover by 5 or more points, regardless of if they won the game. Often you pick up teams that played a close loss this way and then they fall apart in the next game playing like the big dogs they deserve to be.
2. Avoid betting this in game 7 (or 5). The final game just brings weird things out. Both teams play not to lose and usually its just best to bet the dog in a final game. Its certainly not a situation where you play a bounce back because you will get full focus out of both sides and often the game is won by the team that just wills its way to the victory, oftentimes a non-covering favorite.
Nice angles Wild Bill. Not sure about elimination games though - while weird things do happen, I wouldn't bet the dog blindly. It is interesting to note that the lines are being adjusted to take this angle into effect. 76ers already posted 1/2 pt higher than they were for game 1. Wouldn't surprise me if game goes to 8 or 8.5.
Needless to say, I already bet the 76ers in Game 2 -7.5 and will hold my nose and bet the Heat as soon as I get a line for game 2. There's just something wrong with Miami - has Riley "burned out" the Heat?
I think Philadelphia best bet should be when they play at Indiana, PHI have the best road record in NBA(better than IND home record) and they should favor by 2-3 points if they win they should cover and they should win at least one game.
....just go against every one of my playoff picks and see if you're ahead when the NBA season is over. Me-thinks you'll become half-penny-man
I'm just kidding,your angle is not bad I know it well,I bet some games too...good luck.
...thanks for the post. I thought you might be breaking my balls, but I wasn't sure. Glad to know you are - but that's the way I like it. Ball-breaking is a good thing. And, good luck to you as well.
Note to anybody who bets this way, please remember the point about consistent unit size is important because if you vary your bet, 60% winners won't necessarily mean you'll win any money.
Game 2 pix: 76ers -7.5 Heat -5
Haven't bet them yet, but will take: Raptors, T-blazers, Magic, and Kings
Besides 76ers -7.5, Heat -5, took Raptors +2.5 Blazers +6 Magic +6.5 Kings -7
Postem like you said brother man. Heres hoping.
Up the K.
Knock em dead brother.
Philadelphia - 7
Minnesota-San antonio OVER 181
Damn.....didn't read this in time to get the under.....
Adam.
Sure you don't want to take the Heat -5? :)
the pacers covered and won and beat spread by >5; is this g an example of spot you were talking about in previous post....gl tia
Toronto + 3.5
Toronto-New York UNDER 173.5
Phoenix + 7
Miami - 5
Minnesota-San Antonio UNDER 178.5
The Lewis disaster got me thinking.
Do any of you serious sports bettors wager on Boxing? Is the sport too corrupt to have an overlay without inside info?
All the beat up bodies around, and we're only a quarter of the way done, boys. Like we said, it's a tough tournament.
Going over my predictions for the first round:
EAST
Jersey over Carolina. Could have gone 4 straight but for an OT and one game Irbe stole, but form held. Did I say Scott Stevens had lost a half-step? I'll bet Shane Willis and Ron Francis don't think so. Sorry, Scott.
I quite frankly just did not see the Sens folding like that. In retrospect, they do need some grinders and character players, but sheesh. Leafs once again insult their season ticket holders by going thru the motions in the regular season.
Pittsburg over Wash. Had this one bang on, but it was closer checking than I thought it might be. Even Jagr came back over the blue line a few times.
Buffalo over Philly. I thought Buff might upset if Hasek outplayed Cechmanek. Hasek very Darth Vader like. "I AM the master."
WEST
COL over VCR. Closest sweep you will ever see. Colorado still looks good to me, but the Canucks are a team on the rise.
LA over DET. What did I say? What did I say? I had this funny feeling that the Wings were headed for a fall, and no question the Yzerman and Shanahan injuries hurt, but jeez, when they blew that 3-0 lead with six minutes to go, you could just feel the 'mo swing. Was that Scotty's last game?
DAL over the Oilers. Wahhhhhh. It's funny how a city can lose its energy virtually overnight. Yeah, you can laugh about it if you will, but I have no doubt there are a few places in the States that get really wound up behind their home team, too. Oilers are still a couple of bodies short of Dallas on talent. Hard work only goes so far, and Dallas works hard, too.
STL over SJ. Thought the Sharks were coming on at the end of the season, and this series could have gone either way. Game 5 OT was a killer.
ROUND TWO
EAST
NJ over TOR. Devils in 5. Sorry, TO, the party's over. Dev's looking better and better each game.
PIT over BUFF in 6. If Pens keep two lines scoring, will be tough to key solely on Mario. Pittsburgh is playing with a lot of grit, but Buffalo will be tough.
WEST
COL over LA. Like the way Andy Murray has the Kings playing. The Blake trade is not looking that one-sided any more with Deadmarsh turning into one of the top young power forwards in the game. COL still has a few too many weapons. COL in 5.
DAL over STL in 7. This will be a long, tough series and whoever gets thru will meet a rested Avalanche team. Almost a coin toss, but I liked the way Hitchcock had the boys going over the Oilers.
I think both East series will be rather close with a chance for 7 games in both. When the Canes decided to show up it wasn't as mismatched as thought. I still think most teams are fairly close in the league and thats why I thought both 1 seeds would have some difficult games, but not difficult series and it happened somewhat. Pens could make it tough, but I still have to go with goaltending. Most series in the first round were a degree of one G clearly outplaying the other except for Roy and to a degree Belfour. This round I think has to side with Hasek over Hedberg. The Buf-Phl series really struck me as the eliminator type series where one team would be disappointed and the other might be headed to the finals. The Sabres badly outplayed the Flyers at times and that definitely has them on track. As for the Leafs, well I think they are getting shortchanged. Cujo did what he does best, come up big in early round playoff series. He might do that again here and I think getting 4-1 with the Leafs is a great value. They have plenty of talent to stay with the Devils as long as the man in the net does his part.
The West might be a bit quicker. The inevitable sets up again for the 3rd year in a row, the two best teams are clearly the Avs and Stars. The Kings are a good story and show what a team that doesn't give up can do. However they remind me of the Sharks last year, an improbable win probably followed by a quick washout because the Avs matchup so well as long as they don't get the injury bug too. The Canucks provided more of a challenge because the Avs didn't get up for the games and just kind of walked through them knowing they could turn it on when needed. They give a bigger effort here and win in 4 or 5 and the Kings go home happy with their accomplishments. The Stars on the other hand should have some tough games, but I see them winning this series in 5 games. The Blues are generally a poor road team and if they lose a quick 2 they will be in trouble. The Stars have much more experience and the edge in the nets. They also have a lot of great two way guys that can neutralize the Blues weapons while providing the clutch goals.
Could we possibly see a rematch of the Sabres and Stars????
I am a complete 21 novice, but am intrigued with the idea of a player banking and thus aquiring the house edge. Isn't this a positive expectation play or am I missing something...
Is anyone familiar with exactly what the house edge is in this game?
What's the loop hole in just hanging out at a table that gets action, playing minimum $5 bets when not your turn to bank, and betting maximum when you bank. The small rake you pay on minimum bets seems a fair trade off for not having any overhead and yet getting what I imagine to be about a 2% edge when playing the banker.
I must be missing something..can anyone help me out?
Great information. Thank you!
Indiana - Philadelphia OVER 175
Do you bother posting tips that nobody reads..... and less than nobody bets on.
I dont have a problem with someone posting picks here. What I dont care for is that there is no analysis or reason with the pick. There are a lot of picks made here, but they almost always include some sort of discussion as to the persons reasoning. I post my thoughts on certain games sometimes, as I like to read the feedback from others on my analysis of the game. What I dont like is this guy never provides any insight as to why he made a certain pick. Coupled with the fact his picks are wrong more often than right makes him a clown in my book.--Big Al--
Remember not long ago the guy finally won and then next thing you know there is a posting for picks by email??? The incentive seems obvious. This is like the old days where sports services would just give out both sides to a game and eventually they would have some people that thought they were a great 4-0 and then try to hit them up for a big bet. Internet would be a great place just to post guesses on games and hope that you got hot to start and if not find another board or come back 3 months laters and try it again.
Picks with analysis...... make interesting reading.. hence wildbills posts are ALWAYS worth reading.
this guy is just a time waster.
Cheers,
Keith
This is one of my favorite spots in the NBA playoffs. A team is down 2-0, they are coming home for the first time in the series, and everyone has written them off. Home court advantage is the greatest in basketball and football, in my opinion. The reasons are different, with football its the emotional boost a team gets from the home crowd that can help them sustain the physical toughness they need for the entire game (there are others that we can discuss at a later time). In basketball, its the familiarity with the court, where your favorite spots are to shoot, etc., that benefit the home basketball team. If you have played any sort of basketball on a competetive level, on your "home" court, you know what I am talking about. Minnesota is a 2 point dog against San Antonio in game 3 at Minnesota. I love Minnesota in this spot. They are a solid team at home and I expect them to win this game fairly easily. As I mentioned, this is one of my favorite plays in all of sports betting.--Big Al--
...NBA playoff system game 3 picks so far are: Heat (I hate this one to be honest with you), T-wolves, Pacers, and Mavs.
Of these 4, I clearly like Minn and Dallas the most
If they do, then the Spurs will kill them in game 4, that is the usual order of business. I gave a speech on this at our sports betting meetings last week. I will post that article a little later, but it covers who usually has the edge in each situation in a NBA/NHL playoff series, ie when home ice team(higher ranked) is up 3-1 in a series. The first round isn't always as good to work with in the NBA and sometimes the NHL because the talent edges can sometimes overcome situational spots. After all the Spurs in a mediocre game could still beat the Wolves just on talent alone.
Usually the strongest spot in sports is the one Miami is in. The team that loses 2 at home is usually GOLD in game 3, but something tells me this isn't the case this time. Hardaway not playing almost strikes me as Riley throwing in the towel and praying it fires up his team. Little clues like that have to be looked for to counter the situational edges. What would have been a slam dunk game for me to take the Heat now will just be a pass.
I agree, I think the Spurs (assuming Minnestoa wins) will come back and kill them in game 4. This is another one of my favorite NBA playoff plays.--Big Al--
No more picks...too many losers here.
Now that I post it I am sure it will lose, but its the strongest play I have seen so far in the NBA including all the games for this weekend.
Miami Under 171.5
These two teams have played two games well over the total and a top notch situation in the playoffs is to play the opposite way after a change in venue for game 3 or 5 if you had two unders or overs. This fits nicely in the overall situation too. Riley won't let this team quit and the only way they know how to win is to play stifling defense. Hardaway being out leaves Carter who is a much more deliberate player. He doesn't get the Hardaway "feeling it" syndrome where he just steps up and takes wild 3's. A more deliberate player will kill some clock and avoid easy fast breaks. Further this is the one of the perennially worst shooting stadiums as it is almost a small dome with almost 25,000 seats that seem to go on forever. Not to mention these two played that 60 something-50 something game earlier this year at this site when the Heat were in a patch of strong shooting games. I won't call for a 120 final, but it should come in under the number and the situation and the teams support this. The only way it doesn't play out well is if it goes OT or the Heat just really don't show up and play soft D. I don't see that happening, after all its a short series and they are an easy 3 game win streak away from the next round. Grind it out is the likely scenario...
I lose on a dunk with two seconds left by a team that plays like they are trying to run out the clock, guess it wasn't my night. I was surprised to be that close considering how terribly Miami played. I mean how many times did they try a cross court pass and end up watching someone get an easy lay-up on the other end? If only the public reacted the way they usually do to two overs and move the total more than 4 points up...
Game 2 Results: 3-3 Two of the losers are not surprising considering how they finished the year in a funk - Miami and Portand. The other loser was by a 1/2 pt (Magic +6.5). Hopefully, the 1/2 pt decisions will even out and we'll catch one along the way.
Game 3 pix: Heat +5 Pacers +1.5 Mavs -4.5 T-wolves +2 Magic +1 Knicks +4 Suns -1 T-blazers +2
What I don't like about system play is you have to bet every game blindly,good luck.
Hey, I'm not ˝˘man anymore by the time NBA finals finish I should name $$$$$man...ha-ha.
Heat pushing me toward 1/2 Lira Man myself :)
Good riddance Riley - maybe he'll resign from them by fax as well
Im making some good money on your advice. Its all for the cause. Thanks and. Keep them coming.
What would the capitalization requirements be for a bookmaker starting out with 10 to 12 customers with a goal of about 50 customers?
The only sports action taken would be on football,basketball,and baseball.
Sides and totals only with no bet per side or total more than $100. 11 to 10 juice on football and basketball. Dime line in baseball.
Football season would be the start of the operation.
Please answer since this is only an intellectual exercise.
Thank you.
Shouldn't you mention how much people are going to get in credit? Also you have to know what your clientele is. My guess would be with such a small limit just suckers mostly. These guys though are going to want to play parlays so you have to have some BR to cover that and you absolutely have to offer them or they won't play with you and you lose a lot of big vig.
If you give each guy a dime line of credit and have weekly settle-ups, then I would say $20,000 would suffice for a fairly safe BR and $15,000 probably gets you into business no problem. $10,000 starts getting fairly risky unless you don't offer parlays. If no parlays then $10,000 would be fine in most cases. Most independent books start up with some cash and ready and available sources for more. In this case a guy might come with 10 dimes or even less as long as he has 10 dimes in available credit from someone, usually another guy willing to bankroll him knowing he has the best of it. This is purely to cover the fact that you will have a lot of public bettors in this situation and they will tend to load up on the same teams. If you are a wise book you keep a nice balance and get one or two sharper guys in the fold. They will help you balance a little bit and offset that heavy public money. Sure they take a little off your profit margin, but they greatly lower your swings. And the fear of these guys taking a lot of money is overblown because almost all sharp players have quite a few outs so you are likely only to take some, not all of their hits. In this scenario after about a month to 6 weeks you should have passed your period of greatest risk and very likely will be in the black where you will have a bigger cushion to handle any swings.
Please recommend safe,secure,reputable online sport books with a dime line for baseball!
Thank you
A very good place for baseball betting is www.canbet.com
About 3 years ago the Precription web site posted an article on over/under betting for baseball. Does anyone have a copy?
Thanks Phil Chan
I agree with your Spurs and Bucks picks, the other games I would stay away from.--Big Al--
I'm sure most bettors like Spurs(-4 at many places now and probably go higher)it's not a gimme,Min won 12 of their past 13 game at home and 30-11 during regular season,they can win.
I think UNDER 176.5 is better bet,Spurs turned over 18 times leading to 26 points in their last game they should do better and control pace of the game which should be a slow pace.
UNDER is Game Of The Week.
Thank you brother. Hit em hard baby.
Other Gambling Games
April 2001 Digest is provided by Two Plus Two Publishing and ConJelCo